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Beijing Enterprises Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$34.10
5Y Range-195.87 – -94.37
5Y Selected-145.12
(-) Safety Margin73.90%
5Y Buy Price$-43.03
Upside (to Buy Price)-226.18%
10Y Range-212.05 – -104.53
10Y Selected-158.29
(-) Safety Margin73.90%
10Y Buy Price$-46.93
Upside (to Buy Price)-237.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7400
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8886
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0765
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0034
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0192
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6829
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1594
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5444
Safety Score0.2965

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.60%6.31%6.02%5.73%5.44%5.15%4.87%4.58%4.29%4.00%
Revenue97,158.09103,288.22109,506.94115,783.96122,086.54128,379.76134,626.76140,789.11146,827.11152,700.19
EBITDA4,830.825,135.615,444.825,756.926,070.296,383.206,693.807,000.207,300.427,592.44
D&A-5,398.21-5,738.81-6,084.33-6,433.08-6,783.26-7,132.92-7,480.01-7,822.40-8,157.87-8,484.19
EBIT-567.39-603.19-639.51-676.17-712.97-749.72-786.21-822.19-857.46-891.75
Pro forma Taxes73.5778.2182.9287.6792.4497.21101.94106.60111.17115.62
NOPAT-493.83-524.99-556.59-588.50-620.53-652.52-684.27-715.59-746.28-776.13
Capital Expenditures-10,040.31-10,673.80-11,316.44-11,965.11-12,616.42-13,266.76-13,912.32-14,549.14-15,173.10-15,780.03
NWC Investment291.40297.04301.33304.16305.40304.94302.70298.60292.58284.59
(+) D&A5,398.215,738.816,084.336,433.086,783.267,132.927,480.017,822.408,157.878,484.19
Free Cash Flow-4,844.53-5,162.94-5,487.38-5,816.36-6,148.29-6,481.41-6,813.88-7,143.73-7,468.94-7,787.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.001,258,958,817.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-4,814.82-5,018.93-5,016.15-4,999.77-4,969.86-4,926.65-4,870.44-4,801.65-4,720.81-4,628.51
Raw: -161,563.95
-126,642.77
Raw: -204,635.92
-117,944.41

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-151,462.30-166,712.00
(-) Net Debt6,659.876,659.87
Equity Value-158,122.17-173,371.87
(/) Shares Out1,258.961,258.96
Fair Value$-125.60$-137.71
(-) Safety Margin73.90%73.90%
Buy Price$-32.78$-35.94
Current Price$34.10$34.10
Upside (to Buy Price)-196.13%-205.40%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-4,810.32-4,997.37-4,948.07-4,885.96-4,811.49-4,725.22-4,627.80-4,519.93-4,402.43-4,276.15
Raw: -116,103.17
-87,696.71
Raw: -147,055.57
-77,939.23

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-112,149.92-124,943.98
(-) Net Debt6,659.876,659.87
Equity Value-118,809.79-131,603.85
(/) Shares Out1,258.961,258.96
Fair Value$-94.37$-104.53
(-) Safety Margin73.90%73.90%
Buy Price$-24.63$-27.28
Current Price$34.10$34.10
Upside (to Buy Price)-172.23%-180.01%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF-4,819.38-5,040.79-5,085.83-5,117.33-5,135.01-5,138.68-5,128.28-5,103.85-5,065.55-5,013.66
Raw: -263,886.22
-214,734.32
Raw: -334,236.70
-209,659.51

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-239,932.65-260,307.87
(-) Net Debt6,659.876,659.87
Equity Value-246,592.52-266,967.74
(/) Shares Out1,258.961,258.96
Fair Value$-195.87$-212.05
(-) Safety Margin73.90%73.90%
Buy Price$-51.12$-55.35
Current Price$34.10$34.10
Upside (to Buy Price)-249.92%-262.31%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$34.10
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH69.20%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue292,102.06494,241.53836,264.871,414,974.042,394,159.574,050,957.746,854,287.7611,597,568.6819,623,278.7433,202,913.40
Constant Implied Growth69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%
Implied Free Cash Flow29.2149.4283.63141.50239.42405.10685.431,159.761,962.333,320.29
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF27.9842.4967.60107.55171.13272.28433.23689.311,096.761,745.06

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$35.756.98%$30.95-13.42%
20182018-12-31$41.508.82%$0.97-97.67%
20172017-12-31$46.857.91%$-31.52-167.28%
20162016-12-31$36.656.83%$88.91142.60%
20152015-12-31$46.955.73%$143.46205.57%
20142014-12-31$60.804.68%$-43.84-172.10%
20132013-12-31$76.906.92%$-17.42-122.66%
20122012-12-31$50.506.08%$-60.07-218.95%
20112011-12-31$46.609.41%$-110.75-337.67%
20102010-12-31$47.9512.99%$74.1654.67%
20092009-12-31$56.2511.77%$15.78-71.95%
20082008-12-31$31.6013.32%$-14.95-147.30%
20072007-12-31$37.0514.12%$27.01-27.09%
20062006-12-31$16.8817.62%$38.26126.68%
20052005-12-31$13.1019.52%$11.98-8.52%
20042004-12-31$11.5512.13%$7.63-33.93%
20032003-12-31$9.101.40%$22.95152.19%
20022002-12-31$7.10-2.29%$9.3431.57%
20012001-12-31$8.751.82%$7.81-10.78%
20002000-12-31$8.7510.18%$33.63284.33%
19991999-12-31$8.7514.87%$-10.69-222.17%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-151.55
Median
$-136.61
10th Percentile
$-205.42
90th Percentile
$-104.78

Fair Value Distribution

$-772.36 - $-737.85
1
$-737.85 - $-703.35
0
$-703.35 - $-668.85
0
$-668.85 - $-634.34
0
$-634.34 - $-599.84
0
$-599.84 - $-565.33
0
$-565.33 - $-530.83
1
$-530.83 - $-496.32
1
$-496.32 - $-461.82
2
$-461.82 - $-427.31
0
$-427.31 - $-392.81
1
$-392.81 - $-358.30
4
$-358.30 - $-323.80
12
$-323.80 - $-289.30
9
$-289.30 - $-254.79
20
$-254.79 - $-220.29
31
$-220.29 - $-185.78
87
$-185.78 - $-151.28
191
$-151.28 - $-116.77
414
$-116.77 - $-82.27
225