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China Gas Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$7.96
5Y Range-6.72 – -3.79
5Y Selected-5.26
(-) Safety Margin84.11%
5Y Buy Price$-1.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-112.87%
10Y Range-6.92 – -3.98
10Y Selected-5.45
(-) Safety Margin84.11%
10Y Buy Price$-1.06
Upside (to Buy Price)-113.34%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0475
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8279
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8751
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0022
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8430
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2180
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5170
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0569
Safety Score0.1949

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth4.46%4.41%4.36%4.31%4.26%4.21%4.15%4.10%4.05%4.00%
Revenue82,796.1386,449.5090,219.5094,107.3998,114.30102,241.23106,489.03110,858.40115,349.90119,963.90
EBITDA8,897.039,289.619,694.7210,112.5010,543.0710,986.5411,443.0011,912.5212,395.1612,890.97
D&A-2,520.41-2,631.63-2,746.39-2,864.74-2,986.72-3,112.34-3,241.65-3,374.66-3,511.39-3,651.84
EBIT6,376.616,657.986,948.337,247.767,556.367,874.208,201.348,537.868,883.779,239.12
Pro forma Taxes-1,289.03-1,345.91-1,404.60-1,465.13-1,527.52-1,591.77-1,657.90-1,725.93-1,795.85-1,867.69
NOPAT5,087.585,312.075,543.735,782.636,028.846,282.436,543.446,811.937,087.927,371.44
Capital Expenditures-8,045.30-8,400.30-8,766.63-9,144.42-9,533.77-9,934.79-10,347.54-10,772.12-11,208.56-11,656.90
NWC Investment-221.72-228.95-236.26-243.64-251.10-258.62-266.20-273.82-281.47-289.15
(+) D&A2,520.412,631.632,746.392,864.742,986.723,112.343,241.653,374.663,511.393,651.84
Free Cash Flow-659.03-685.55-712.77-740.69-769.32-798.64-828.65-859.34-890.72-922.77
Diluted Shares Outstanding5,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.005,399,434,168.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33Mar-34Mar-35
Period Start9/30/254/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/324/1/334/1/34
Period End3/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/333/31/343/31/35
Mid-Point12/30/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/329/30/339/30/34
Time (t)0.100.701.712.713.714.715.716.717.718.71
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.32%Terminal Growth: 2.41%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.850.800.750.700.660.620.59
PV UFCF-655.01-656.77-641.87-627.38-612.89-598.44-584.03-569.67-555.37-541.16
Raw: -20,178.49
-15,590.67
Raw: -24,203.30
-13,765.93

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-18,784.59-19,808.52
(-) Net Debt6,569.206,569.20
Equity Value-25,353.79-26,377.72
(/) Shares Out5,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$-4.70$-4.89
(-) Safety Margin84.11%84.11%
Buy Price$-0.75$-0.78
Current Price$7.96$7.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-109.37%-109.75%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.32%Terminal Growth: 1.91%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.890.830.770.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF-654.39-652.48-631.68-611.66-591.97-572.63-553.63-534.98-516.70-498.79
Raw: -14,506.94
-10,775.44
Raw: -17,400.50
-9,079.19

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-13,917.63-14,898.10
(-) Net Debt6,569.206,569.20
Equity Value-20,486.83-21,467.30
(/) Shares Out5,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$-3.79$-3.98
(-) Safety Margin84.11%84.11%
Buy Price$-0.60$-0.63
Current Price$7.96$7.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-107.57%-107.94%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.32%Terminal Growth: 2.91%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.920.870.830.780.740.710.670.64
PV UFCF-655.63-661.13-652.33-643.65-634.76-625.68-616.41-606.96-597.35-587.59
Raw: -32,925.92
-26,472.35
Raw: -39,493.34
-24,504.98

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-29,719.85-30,786.46
(-) Net Debt6,569.206,569.20
Equity Value-36,289.06-37,355.66
(/) Shares Out5,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$-6.72$-6.92
(-) Safety Margin84.11%84.11%
Buy Price$-1.07$-1.10
Current Price$7.96$7.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-113.42%-113.81%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$7.96
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH69.59%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue269,811.73457,563.41775,964.321,315,928.272,231,632.503,784,540.346,418,057.4610,884,138.5818,457,995.0231,302,208.96
Constant Implied Growth69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%
Implied Free Cash Flow26.9845.7677.60131.59223.16378.45641.811,088.411,845.803,130.22
Discount Factor0.970.900.850.800.750.700.660.620.590.55
Present Value of Implied FCF26.2541.2065.73104.84167.22266.73425.46678.641,082.481,726.64

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-03-31$27.001.26%$-12.76-147.27%
20192019-03-31$27.858.04%$1.50-94.60%
20182018-03-31$28.5510.87%$-5.19-118.17%
20172017-03-31$12.529.55%$1.01-91.96%
20162016-03-31$11.4415.14%$11.752.74%
20152015-03-31$12.7018.95%$1.93-84.84%
20142014-03-31$12.1218.23%$-3.28-127.06%
20132013-03-31$7.7713.82%$-0.84-110.79%
20122012-03-31$3.748.62%$-3.74-200.03%
20112011-03-31$3.8311.06%$-2.96-177.33%
20102010-03-31$4.3613.54%$-1.63-137.29%
20092009-03-31$1.2115.74%$-7.92-754.80%
20082008-03-31$1.9322.33%$-5.90-405.79%
20072007-03-31$1.7541.84%$-14.12-907.00%
20062006-03-31$1.5059.74%$-21.67-1,544.82%
20052005-03-31$1.4365.89%$-64.65-4,621.08%
20042004-03-31$0.6753.46%$-24.15-3,705.13%
20032003-03-31$0.8623.19%$-3.20-471.87%
20022002-03-31$1.2626.99%$-0.76-160.32%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-5.31
Median
$-4.92
10th Percentile
$-6.91
90th Percentile
$-3.93

Fair Value Distribution

$-18.00 - $-17.26
1
$-17.26 - $-16.52
2
$-16.52 - $-15.79
1
$-15.79 - $-15.05
2
$-15.05 - $-14.32
3
$-14.32 - $-13.58
2
$-13.58 - $-12.84
1
$-12.84 - $-12.11
0
$-12.11 - $-11.37
1
$-11.37 - $-10.63
8
$-10.63 - $-9.90
6
$-9.90 - $-9.16
6
$-9.16 - $-8.43
8
$-8.43 - $-7.69
20
$-7.69 - $-6.95
37
$-6.95 - $-6.22
66
$-6.22 - $-5.48
143
$-5.48 - $-4.74
255
$-4.74 - $-4.01
299
$-4.01 - $-3.27
138