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SNT Holdings Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$60,500.00
5Y Range317,942.83 – 720,277.92
5Y Selected519,110.38
(-) Safety Margin81.45%
5Y Buy Price$114,723.39
Upside (to Buy Price)89.63%
10Y Range351,218.09 – 773,485.08
10Y Selected562,351.58
(-) Safety Margin81.45%
10Y Buy Price$124,279.70
Upside (to Buy Price)105.42%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8139
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2858
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1007
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6368
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7170
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5780
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2986
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0145
Safety Score0.2210

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.05%5.82%5.59%5.37%5.14%4.91%4.68%4.46%4.23%4.00%
Revenue1,930,612.392,042,977.052,157,233.332,272,971.432,389,747.562,507,086.032,624,481.812,741,403.502,857,296.872,971,588.74
EBITDA338,950.36358,677.80378,737.34399,057.05419,558.99440,159.67460,770.40481,297.90501,644.87521,710.66
D&A-53,359.22-56,464.81-59,622.68-62,821.50-66,049.02-69,292.08-72,536.72-75,768.26-78,971.38-82,130.23
EBIT285,591.14302,212.99319,114.67336,235.54353,509.97370,867.59388,233.68405,529.64422,673.49439,580.43
Pro forma Taxes-69,652.91-73,706.81-77,828.97-82,004.58-86,217.65-90,451.00-94,686.43-98,904.74-103,085.96-107,209.40
NOPAT215,938.23228,506.18241,285.70254,230.96267,292.32280,416.58293,547.25306,624.90319,587.53332,371.03
Capital Expenditures-55,986.07-59,244.55-62,557.88-65,914.18-69,300.59-72,703.30-76,107.68-79,498.30-82,859.11-86,173.47
NWC Investment-18,801.11-19,188.05-19,511.07-19,764.11-19,941.37-20,037.40-20,047.19-19,966.23-19,790.63-19,517.15
(+) D&A53,359.2256,464.8159,622.6862,821.5066,049.0269,292.0872,536.7275,768.2678,971.3882,130.23
Free Cash Flow194,510.27206,538.39218,839.42231,374.16244,099.38256,967.96269,929.11282,928.62295,909.17308,810.64
Diluted Shares Outstanding14,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.5014,543,915.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.68%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF193,317.75200,777.51200,046.86198,890.00197,313.44195,326.36192,940.56190,170.26187,032.05183,544.67
Raw: 6,840,225.23
5,361,747.36
Raw: 8,653,583.37
4,987,598.12

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,352,092.926,926,957.57
(-) Net Debt-276.36-276.36
Equity Value6,352,369.286,927,233.93
(/) Shares Out14.5414.54
Fair Value$436,771.60$476,297.73
(-) Safety Margin81.45%81.45%
Buy Price$81,021.13$88,353.23
Current Price$60,500.00$60,500.00
Upside (to Buy Price)33.92%46.04%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 2.18%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF193,136.90199,914.93197,331.81194,362.95191,025.95187,340.53183,328.32179,012.68174,418.45169,571.68
Raw: 4,829,761.66
3,648,084.79
Raw: 6,110,141.66
3,238,365.68

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,623,857.325,107,809.86
(-) Net Debt-276.36-276.36
Equity Value4,624,133.685,108,086.21
(/) Shares Out14.5414.54
Fair Value$317,942.83$351,218.09
(-) Safety Margin81.45%81.45%
Buy Price$58,978.40$65,150.96
Current Price$60,500.00$60,500.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-2.52%7.69%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 3.18%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF193,500.48201,652.01202,825.46203,566.78203,870.25203,732.96203,154.84202,138.71200,690.19198,817.74
Raw: 11,637,611.38
9,469,969.91
Raw: 14,722,766.70
9,235,275.85

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,475,384.8911,249,225.26
(-) Net Debt-276.36-276.36
Equity Value10,475,661.2411,249,501.61
(/) Shares Out14.5414.54
Fair Value$720,277.92$773,485.08
(-) Safety Margin81.45%81.45%
Buy Price$133,611.55$143,481.48
Current Price$60,500.00$60,500.00
Upside (to Buy Price)120.85%137.16%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$60,500.00
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH75.74%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,696,109.266,495,487.9211,415,074.6820,060,683.9235,254,350.1061,955,475.00108,879,638.16191,343,470.55336,264,193.58590,945,735.21
Constant Implied Growth75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%75.74%
Implied Free Cash Flow369.61649.551,141.512,006.073,525.446,195.5510,887.9619,134.3533,626.4259,094.57
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF351.22558.35922.721,524.852,519.924,164.336,881.8411,372.6918,794.1231,058.53

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$15,450.008.19%$97,163.80528.89%
20182018-12-31$13,200.007.20%$136,509.65934.16%
20172017-12-31$15,600.005.04%$117,709.86654.55%
20162016-12-31$15,388.351.42%$114,430.22643.62%
20152015-12-31$28,495.150.87%$94,916.08233.10%
20142014-12-31$18,474.89-0.98%$45,970.85148.83%
20132013-12-31$14,871.06-2.22%$52,436.94252.61%
20122012-12-31$8,931.79-0.54%$21,011.24135.24%
20112011-12-31$11,530.79-1.95%$23,868.15106.99%
20102010-12-31$13,681.38-1.48%$12,114.48-11.45%
20092009-12-31$14,871.060.85%$38,192.79156.83%
20082008-12-31$5,234.618.18%$118,404.482,161.95%
20072007-12-31$29,376.075.79%$85,096.39189.68%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$542,747.22
Median
$480,619.82
10th Percentile
$345,429.97
90th Percentile
$787,484.55

Fair Value Distribution

$238,467.67 - $348,035.75
108
$348,035.75 - $457,603.83
318
$457,603.83 - $567,171.91
273
$567,171.91 - $676,739.99
139
$676,739.99 - $786,308.06
62
$786,308.06 - $895,876.14
29
$895,876.14 - $1,005,444.22
17
$1,005,444.22 - $1,115,012.30
16
$1,115,012.30 - $1,224,580.38
9
$1,224,580.38 - $1,334,148.46
11
$1,334,148.46 - $1,443,716.54
5
$1,443,716.54 - $1,553,284.62
4
$1,553,284.62 - $1,662,852.70
1
$1,662,852.70 - $1,772,420.78
3
$1,772,420.78 - $1,881,988.86
2
$1,881,988.86 - $1,991,556.94
0
$1,991,556.94 - $2,101,125.02
1
$2,101,125.02 - $2,210,693.10
0
$2,210,693.10 - $2,320,261.18
1
$2,320,261.18 - $2,429,829.26
1