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Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$14.88
5Y Range50.70 – 105.63
5Y Selected78.17
(-) Safety Margin85.60%
5Y Buy Price$14.04
Upside (to Buy Price)-5.65%
10Y Range50.86 – 101.24
10Y Selected76.05
(-) Safety Margin85.60%
10Y Buy Price$13.66
Upside (to Buy Price)-8.21%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0078
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3967
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0406
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0000
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1408
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0308
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0008
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1194
Safety Score0.1796

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.55%-0.04%0.46%0.97%1.47%1.98%2.48%2.99%3.49%4.00%
Revenue28,759.9128,748.2528,881.7929,161.8229,591.8630,177.7030,927.5531,852.2432,965.4534,284.07
EBITDA8,315.268,311.898,350.508,431.468,555.808,725.188,941.989,209.339,531.199,912.44
D&A-1,583.35-1,582.70-1,590.06-1,605.47-1,629.15-1,661.40-1,702.68-1,753.59-1,814.88-1,887.47
EBIT6,731.916,729.186,760.446,825.996,926.657,063.787,239.307,455.747,716.318,024.97
Pro forma Taxes-2,986.87-2,985.66-2,999.53-3,028.61-3,073.27-3,134.11-3,211.99-3,308.02-3,423.64-3,560.58
NOPAT3,745.043,743.523,760.913,797.383,853.383,929.664,027.314,147.724,292.684,464.38
Capital Expenditures-2,001.63-2,000.82-2,010.12-2,029.61-2,059.54-2,100.31-2,152.50-2,216.85-2,294.33-2,386.10
NWC Investment46.623.45-39.45-82.74-127.06-173.09-221.55-273.20-328.90-389.59
(+) D&A1,583.351,582.701,590.061,605.471,629.151,661.401,702.681,753.591,814.881,887.47
Free Cash Flow3,373.373,328.853,301.403,290.513,295.933,317.663,355.943,411.253,484.323,576.16
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.001,087,211,600.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.20%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF3,352.693,236.003,017.892,828.532,664.212,521.822,398.772,292.872,202.292,125.53
Raw: 81,274.64
63,707.56
Raw: 88,184.78
50,826.37

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value78,806.8877,466.97
(-) Net Debt4,624.254,624.25
Equity Value74,182.6372,842.72
(/) Shares Out1,087.211,087.21
Fair Value$68.23$67.00
(-) Safety Margin85.60%85.60%
Buy Price$9.83$9.65
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-33.97%-35.16%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF3,349.553,222.102,976.932,764.152,579.312,418.722,279.262,158.342,053.771,963.71
Raw: 59,384.12
44,854.87
Raw: 64,433.09
34,149.44

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value59,746.9159,915.29
(-) Net Debt4,624.254,624.25
Equity Value55,122.6655,291.04
(/) Shares Out1,087.211,087.21
Fair Value$50.70$50.86
(-) Safety Margin85.60%85.60%
Buy Price$7.30$7.32
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-50.93%-50.78%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF3,355.863,250.103,059.812,895.042,752.742,630.362,525.762,437.172,363.122,302.39
Raw: 127,998.86
104,157.57
Raw: 138,881.60
87,117.45

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value119,471.12114,689.80
(-) Net Debt4,624.254,624.25
Equity Value114,846.87110,065.55
(/) Shares Out1,087.211,087.21
Fair Value$105.63$101.24
(-) Safety Margin85.60%85.60%
Buy Price$15.21$14.58
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)2.23%-2.03%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$14.88
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH72.92%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue100,812.46174,323.60301,438.11521,242.86901,326.381,558,561.872,695,044.934,660,236.708,058,420.7713,934,516.53
Constant Implied Growth72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%72.92%
Implied Free Cash Flow10.0817.4330.1452.1290.13155.86269.50466.02805.841,393.45
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF9.6614.9824.3739.6264.43104.76170.34276.99450.39732.36

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$15.00-0.43%$-2.68-117.84%
20182018-12-31$15.841.66%$-29.55-286.55%
20172017-12-31$22.602.41%$7.97-64.75%
20162016-12-31$21.004.30%$139.93566.32%
20152015-12-31$20.354.97%$-17.76-187.28%
20142014-12-31$23.2513.88%$-134.37-677.93%
20132013-12-31$28.3512.92%$124.03337.50%
20122012-12-31$27.258.27%$52.0090.84%
20112011-12-31$21.551.80%$-33.05-253.34%
20102010-12-31$33.504.81%$39.2417.13%
20092009-12-31$39.6511.95%$3.03-92.35%
20082008-12-31$17.7025.83%$108.41512.50%
20072007-12-31$34.0015.92%$-19.31-156.81%
20062006-12-31$16.7811.31%$8.00-52.30%
20052005-12-31$16.158.15%$10.85-32.82%
20042004-12-31$16.605.59%$11.66-29.74%
20032003-12-31$17.7526.02%$38.00114.06%
20022002-12-31$10.7525.93%$44.85317.19%
20012001-12-31$14.1020.54%$40.24185.38%
20002000-12-31$14.0511.15%$31.35123.16%
19991999-12-31$16.020.01%$18.9618.32%
19981998-12-31$16.02-3.26%$-3.03-118.92%
19971997-12-31$16.02-3.28%$-3.25-120.29%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$71.79
Median
$66.51
10th Percentile
$51.33
90th Percentile
$97.52

Fair Value Distribution

$38.07 - $47.29
51
$47.29 - $56.50
183
$56.50 - $65.71
242
$65.71 - $74.92
198
$74.92 - $84.13
127
$84.13 - $93.35
78
$93.35 - $102.56
38
$102.56 - $111.77
24
$111.77 - $120.98
20
$120.98 - $130.19
13
$130.19 - $139.41
6
$139.41 - $148.62
5
$148.62 - $157.83
7
$157.83 - $167.04
0
$167.04 - $176.25
4
$176.25 - $185.47
0
$185.47 - $194.68
2
$194.68 - $203.89
1
$203.89 - $213.10
0
$213.10 - $222.31
1