Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.21 |
| 5Y Range | 1.05 – 1.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.67% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.71% |
| 10Y Range | 1.18 – 2.12 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.67% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.76% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0025 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7752 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0479 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4710 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1267 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5222 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2182 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0986 |
| Safety Score | 0.2600 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.56% | 4.50% | 4.43% | 4.37% | 4.31% | 4.25% | 4.19% | 4.12% | 4.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,320.40 | 6,604.56 | 6,897.41 | 7,198.96 | 7,509.23 | 7,828.22 | 8,155.91 | 8,492.26 | 8,837.21 | 9,190.70 |
| EBITDA | 275.56 | 287.95 | 300.71 | 313.86 | 327.39 | 341.29 | 355.58 | 370.24 | 385.28 | 400.70 |
| D&A | -57.29 | -59.87 | -62.52 | -65.26 | -68.07 | -70.96 | -73.93 | -76.98 | -80.11 | -83.31 |
| EBIT | 218.26 | 228.08 | 238.19 | 248.60 | 259.32 | 270.33 | 281.65 | 293.27 | 305.18 | 317.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -28.33 | -29.60 | -30.92 | -32.27 | -33.66 | -35.09 | -36.56 | -38.06 | -39.61 | -41.19 |
| NOPAT | 189.93 | 198.47 | 207.27 | 216.34 | 225.66 | 235.25 | 245.09 | 255.20 | 265.57 | 276.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -149.53 | -156.25 | -163.18 | -170.32 | -177.66 | -185.21 | -192.96 | -200.92 | -209.08 | -217.44 |
| NWC Investment | -65.17 | -67.21 | -69.27 | -71.33 | -73.39 | -75.45 | -77.51 | -79.56 | -81.59 | -83.61 |
| (+) D&A | 57.29 | 59.87 | 62.52 | 65.26 | 68.07 | 70.96 | 73.93 | 76.98 | 80.11 | 83.31 |
| Free Cash Flow | 32.52 | 34.87 | 37.35 | 39.95 | 42.68 | 45.55 | 48.56 | 51.71 | 55.00 | 58.45 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 | 1,083,959,491.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 32.33 | 33.93 | 34.18 | 34.38 | 34.56 | 34.69 | 34.80 | 34.86 | 34.89 | 34.88 | Raw: 1,118.79 878.57 |
Raw: 1,532.13 886.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,047.95 | 1,230.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.85 | -364.85 |
| Equity Value | 1,412.80 | 1,595.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,083.96 | 1,083.96 |
| Fair Value | $1.30 | $1.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.67% | 77.67% |
| Buy Price | $0.29 | $0.33 |
| Current Price | $5.21 | $5.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.41% | -93.69% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 32.30 | 33.79 | 33.72 | 33.60 | 33.45 | 33.28 | 33.06 | 32.81 | 32.53 | 32.22 | Raw: 804.41 608.70 |
Raw: 1,101.61 586.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 775.56 | 917.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.85 | -364.85 |
| Equity Value | 1,140.41 | 1,281.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,083.96 | 1,083.96 |
| Fair Value | $1.05 | $1.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.67% | 77.67% |
| Buy Price | $0.23 | $0.26 |
| Current Price | $5.21 | $5.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.49% | -94.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 32.36 | 34.07 | 34.66 | 35.19 | 35.70 | 36.19 | 36.64 | 37.05 | 37.44 | 37.78 | Raw: 1,825.14 1,487.94 |
Raw: 2,499.45 1,574.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,659.92 | 1,931.50 |
| (-) Net Debt | -364.85 | -364.85 |
| Equity Value | 2,024.77 | 2,296.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,083.96 | 1,083.96 |
| Fair Value | $1.87 | $2.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.67% | 77.67% |
| Buy Price | $0.42 | $0.47 |
| Current Price | $5.21 | $5.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.99% | -90.92% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 20,992.33 | 37,026.14 | 65,306.48 | 115,187.17 | 203,166.43 | 358,343.73 | 632,044.50 | 1,114,796.25 | 1,966,270.88 | 3,468,096.68 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.10 | 3.70 | 6.53 | 11.52 | 20.32 | 35.83 | 63.20 | 111.48 | 196.63 | 346.81 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.01 | 3.19 | 5.29 | 8.77 | 14.56 | 24.16 | 40.09 | 66.52 | 110.38 | 183.16 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3.65 | 1.24% | $19.86 | 444.17% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.83 | 10.26% | $5.38 | 89.94% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.57 | 16.22% | $7.22 | 102.22% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5.14 | 16.72% | $8.38 | 62.96% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $7.99 | 16.97% | $10.55 | 32.07% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $8.00 | 15.24% | $5.67 | -29.18% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.12 | 14.28% | $9.32 | 198.68% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1.60 | 18.26% | $7.50 | 368.68% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.70 | 20.54% | $0.37 | -78.30% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2.83 | 23.29% | $7.37 | 160.32% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.88 | 19.29% | $7.04 | 144.58% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.88 | 17.79% | $-0.09 | -103.14% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2.88 | 23.52% | $-1.58 | -154.75% |
| $0.97 - $1.11 | 51 |
| $1.11 - $1.26 | 141 |
| $1.26 - $1.40 | 210 |
| $1.40 - $1.54 | 174 |
| $1.54 - $1.68 | 130 |
| $1.68 - $1.83 | 96 |
| $1.83 - $1.97 | 67 |
| $1.97 - $2.11 | 46 |
| $2.11 - $2.25 | 27 |
| $2.25 - $2.40 | 18 |
| $2.40 - $2.54 | 10 |
| $2.54 - $2.68 | 7 |
| $2.68 - $2.82 | 3 |
| $2.82 - $2.97 | 4 |
| $2.97 - $3.11 | 6 |
| $3.11 - $3.25 | 1 |
| $3.25 - $3.39 | 5 |
| $3.39 - $3.54 | 2 |
| $3.54 - $3.68 | 1 |
| $3.68 - $3.82 | 0 |