Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.75 |
| 5Y Range | 29.54 – 56.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 43.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 107.28% |
| 10Y Range | 30.81 – 57.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 44.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 111.47% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6472 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5446 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0454 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5848 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5363 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0475 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0445 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4805 |
| Safety Score | 0.2279 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.76% | -1.12% | -0.48% | 0.16% | 0.80% | 1.44% | 2.08% | 2.72% | 3.36% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,143.53 | 6,074.84 | 6,045.79 | 6,055.55 | 6,104.07 | 6,192.03 | 6,320.87 | 6,492.83 | 6,711.00 | 6,979.44 |
| EBITDA | 3,227.37 | 3,191.28 | 3,176.02 | 3,181.15 | 3,206.64 | 3,252.85 | 3,320.53 | 3,410.86 | 3,525.48 | 3,666.50 |
| D&A | -991.46 | -980.38 | -975.69 | -977.26 | -985.09 | -999.29 | -1,020.08 | -1,047.83 | -1,083.04 | -1,126.37 |
| EBIT | 2,235.90 | 2,210.91 | 2,200.33 | 2,203.89 | 2,221.54 | 2,253.56 | 2,300.45 | 2,363.03 | 2,442.43 | 2,540.13 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -569.78 | -563.41 | -560.72 | -561.62 | -566.12 | -574.28 | -586.23 | -602.18 | -622.41 | -647.31 |
| NOPAT | 1,666.12 | 1,647.49 | 1,639.61 | 1,642.26 | 1,655.42 | 1,679.27 | 1,714.22 | 1,760.85 | 1,820.02 | 1,892.82 |
| Capital Expenditures | -702.83 | -694.97 | -691.65 | -692.76 | -698.31 | -708.38 | -723.12 | -742.79 | -767.75 | -798.46 |
| NWC Investment | -13.02 | -8.14 | -3.44 | 1.16 | 5.75 | 10.42 | 15.26 | 20.37 | 25.85 | 31.80 |
| (+) D&A | 991.46 | 980.38 | 975.69 | 977.26 | 985.09 | 999.29 | 1,020.08 | 1,047.83 | 1,083.04 | 1,126.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,941.73 | 1,924.76 | 1,920.21 | 1,927.92 | 1,947.95 | 1,980.61 | 2,026.45 | 2,086.27 | 2,161.16 | 2,252.53 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 | 1,107,508,312.75 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,929.25 | 1,810.36 | 1,693.27 | 1,593.87 | 1,509.83 | 1,439.25 | 1,380.58 | 1,331.69 | 1,293.33 | 1,263.80 | Raw: 45,377.08 34,055.05 |
Raw: 52,472.23 28,505.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,591.63 | 43,751.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | -88.74 | -88.74 |
| Equity Value | 42,680.37 | 43,839.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,107.51 | 1,107.51 |
| Fair Value | $38.54 | $39.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.11% | 80.11% |
| Buy Price | $7.67 | $7.87 |
| Current Price | $4.75 | $4.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 61.37% | 65.75% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,927.45 | 1,794.38 | 1,662.73 | 1,550.59 | 1,455.19 | 1,374.28 | 1,306.01 | 1,247.95 | 1,200.74 | 1,162.43 | Raw: 33,656.28 24,231.29 |
Raw: 38,918.77 19,356.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 32,621.64 | 34,038.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | -88.74 | -88.74 |
| Equity Value | 32,710.39 | 34,126.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,107.51 | 1,107.51 |
| Fair Value | $29.54 | $30.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.11% | 80.11% |
| Buy Price | $5.87 | $6.13 |
| Current Price | $4.75 | $4.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 23.67% | 29.03% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.61 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,931.07 | 1,826.64 | 1,724.66 | 1,638.78 | 1,567.07 | 1,507.95 | 1,460.17 | 1,421.92 | 1,394.03 | 1,375.10 | Raw: 69,263.34 54,206.68 |
Raw: 80,093.35 47,566.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,894.89 | 63,413.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -88.74 | -88.74 |
| Equity Value | 62,983.63 | 63,502.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,107.51 | 1,107.51 |
| Fair Value | $56.87 | $57.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.11% | 80.11% |
| Buy Price | $11.31 | $11.40 |
| Current Price | $4.75 | $4.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 138.13% | 140.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 22,066.75 | 39,034.34 | 69,048.66 | 122,141.62 | 216,058.87 | 382,191.05 | 676,065.74 | 1,195,906.82 | 2,115,464.57 | 3,742,089.49 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% | 76.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.21 | 3.90 | 6.90 | 12.21 | 21.61 | 38.22 | 67.61 | 119.59 | 211.55 | 374.21 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.14 | 3.44 | 5.71 | 9.47 | 15.70 | 26.04 | 43.15 | 71.57 | 118.69 | 196.84 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $4.15 | -2.28% | $17.19 | 314.25% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $7.48 | -1.86% | $8.60 | 14.94% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $8.10 | -4.01% | $11.04 | 36.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $10.22 | -9.39% | $-15.88 | -255.40% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $13.80 | -9.35% | $3.68 | -73.34% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $13.52 | -21.02% | $5.03 | -62.82% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $9.76 | -23.77% | $2.11 | -78.35% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $12.80 | -14.93% | $-5.28 | -141.22% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $14.90 | -4.44% | $28.07 | 88.42% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $11.52 | 15.84% | $71.37 | 519.54% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $4.05 | 23.15% | $29.95 | 639.54% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $2.38 | 30.54% | $15.98 | 571.60% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $4.01 | 34.41% | $25.75 | 542.07% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $4.52 | 26.62% | $22.89 | 406.31% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $3.85 | 12.84% | $14.15 | 267.44% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $4.28 | 2.45% | $1.72 | -59.73% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $4.28 | 2.43% | $6.85 | 60.04% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $4.45 | 5.15% | $7.59 | 70.57% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $4.40 | 8.25% | $2.69 | -38.90% |
| $22.86 - $39.47 | 492 |
| $39.47 - $56.09 | 412 |
| $56.09 - $72.70 | 63 |
| $72.70 - $89.31 | 25 |
| $89.31 - $105.93 | 3 |
| $105.93 - $122.54 | 2 |
| $122.54 - $139.15 | 1 |
| $139.15 - $155.77 | 0 |
| $155.77 - $172.38 | 1 |
| $172.38 - $189.00 | 0 |
| $189.00 - $205.61 | 0 |
| $205.61 - $222.22 | 0 |
| $222.22 - $238.84 | 0 |
| $238.84 - $255.45 | 0 |
| $255.45 - $272.06 | 0 |
| $272.06 - $288.68 | 0 |
| $288.68 - $305.29 | 0 |
| $305.29 - $321.90 | 0 |
| $321.90 - $338.52 | 0 |
| $338.52 - $355.13 | 1 |