Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.23 |
| 5Y Range | 121.97 – 280.16 |
| 5Y Selected | 201.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.12% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $63.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 416.72% |
| 10Y Range | 166.30 – 375.98 |
| 10Y Selected | 271.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.12% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $85.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 596.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8668 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9320 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0059 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6345 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3043 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4747 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4346 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1790 |
| Safety Score | 0.3143 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.72% | 9.09% | 8.45% | 7.82% | 7.18% | 6.54% | 5.91% | 5.27% | 4.64% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,042,042.31 | 1,136,748.52 | 1,232,831.67 | 1,329,194.59 | 1,424,635.08 | 1,517,866.89 | 1,607,545.43 | 1,692,297.31 | 1,770,753.31 | 1,841,583.44 |
| EBITDA | 347,714.56 | 379,316.67 | 411,378.23 | 443,533.16 | 475,380.28 | 506,490.40 | 536,414.84 | 564,695.32 | 590,874.96 | 614,509.96 |
| D&A | -33,107.48 | -36,116.46 | -39,169.19 | -42,230.81 | -45,263.11 | -48,225.25 | -51,074.49 | -53,767.21 | -56,259.89 | -58,510.28 |
| EBIT | 314,607.08 | 343,200.20 | 372,209.04 | 401,302.35 | 430,117.16 | 458,265.15 | 485,340.34 | 510,928.12 | 534,615.08 | 555,999.68 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -62,152.56 | -67,801.31 | -73,532.18 | -79,279.75 | -84,972.29 | -90,533.10 | -95,881.97 | -100,936.99 | -105,616.49 | -109,841.15 |
| NOPAT | 252,454.52 | 275,398.89 | 298,676.86 | 322,022.61 | 345,144.87 | 367,732.05 | 389,458.38 | 409,991.13 | 428,998.58 | 446,158.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | -39,246.59 | -42,813.53 | -46,432.32 | -50,061.65 | -53,656.24 | -57,167.65 | -60,545.22 | -63,737.25 | -66,692.15 | -69,359.83 |
| NWC Investment | -114,242.09 | -117,152.66 | -118,855.95 | -119,202.03 | -118,060.96 | -115,328.82 | -110,933.36 | -104,839.04 | -97,050.96 | -87,617.68 |
| (+) D&A | 33,107.48 | 36,116.46 | 39,169.19 | 42,230.81 | 45,263.11 | 48,225.25 | 51,074.49 | 53,767.21 | 56,259.89 | 58,510.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 132,073.32 | 151,549.17 | 172,557.78 | 194,989.73 | 218,690.78 | 243,460.84 | 269,054.29 | 295,182.05 | 321,515.36 | 347,691.30 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 | 29,090,131,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 131,263.59 | 147,412.70 | 157,836.64 | 167,613.82 | 176,774.85 | 185,059.34 | 192,315.25 | 198,406.39 | 203,216.68 | 206,653.78 | Raw: 5,780,118.83 4,530,777.26 |
Raw: 9,189,674.11 5,296,580.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,311,678.86 | 7,063,133.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 353,034.03 | 353,034.03 |
| Equity Value | 4,958,644.83 | 6,710,099.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29,090.13 | 29,090.13 |
| Fair Value | $170.46 | $230.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.12% | 72.12% |
| Buy Price | $47.52 | $64.31 |
| Current Price | $12.23 | $12.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 288.58% | 425.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 131,140.79 | 146,793.13 | 155,709.03 | 163,798.66 | 171,141.83 | 177,493.26 | 182,734.17 | 186,765.59 | 189,511.57 | 190,921.53 | Raw: 4,147,266.18 3,132,572.52 |
Raw: 6,593,640.32 3,494,619.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,901,155.97 | 5,190,628.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 353,034.03 | 353,034.03 |
| Equity Value | 3,548,121.94 | 4,837,594.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29,090.13 | 29,090.13 |
| Fair Value | $121.97 | $166.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.12% | 72.12% |
| Buy Price | $34.01 | $46.36 |
| Current Price | $12.23 | $12.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 178.05% | 279.10% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 131,387.67 | 148,040.78 | 160,013.82 | 171,555.16 | 182,649.15 | 193,024.05 | 202,496.43 | 210,893.18 | 218,056.71 | 223,849.79 | Raw: 9,473,959.41 7,709,323.47 |
Raw: 15,062,423.80 9,448,335.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,502,970.05 | 11,290,302.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | 353,034.03 | 353,034.03 |
| Equity Value | 8,149,936.03 | 10,937,268.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29,090.13 | 29,090.13 |
| Fair Value | $280.16 | $375.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.12% | 72.12% |
| Buy Price | $78.11 | $104.82 |
| Current Price | $12.23 | $12.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 538.67% | 757.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,743,813.54 | 4,867,656.52 | 8,635,455.59 | 15,319,711.44 | 27,177,901.17 | 48,214,897.18 | 85,535,534.76 | 151,744,131.67 | 269,201,350.78 | 477,576,078.00 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% | 77.40% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 274.38 | 486.77 | 863.55 | 1,531.97 | 2,717.79 | 4,821.49 | 8,553.55 | 15,174.41 | 26,920.14 | 47,757.61 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 262.82 | 418.43 | 698.03 | 1,164.48 | 1,942.63 | 3,240.76 | 5,406.35 | 9,019.06 | 15,045.92 | 25,100.13 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.42 | 11.41% | $41.88 | 301.90% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $12.28 | 9.00% | $1.53 | -87.51% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $11.36 | 9.62% | $-125.48 | -1,204.60% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $11.10 | 9.43% | $115.91 | 944.28% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $13.72 | 9.70% | $-117.06 | -953.18% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $13.20 | 8.69% | $45.57 | 245.25% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $11.86 | -3.11% | $-9.53 | -180.38% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $11.56 | 24.45% | $-223.61 | -2,034.38% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $14.00 | 1.06% | $-78.61 | -661.52% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $20.05 | -13.77% | $-55.60 | -377.32% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $20.90 | -18.08% | $-35.30 | -268.92% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.38 | -22.83% | $-49.90 | -695.45% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $43.55 | 11.76% | $-34.76 | -179.82% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $26.85 | 5.22% | $2.22 | -91.72% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $21.45 | -6.75% | $-7.04 | -132.82% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $22.10 | 1.57% | $-17.76 | -180.36% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $19.80 | 20.32% | $-1.25 | -106.32% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $14.40 | 19.29% | $40.43 | 180.80% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $16.61 | 15.95% | $-27.83 | -267.54% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $26.47 | 8.93% | $-12.13 | -145.83% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $28.48 | 11.43% | $-42.07 | -247.74% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $28.48 | 2.57% | $-1.94 | -106.80% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $28.48 | 4.64% | $19.07 | -33.06% |
| $113.87 - $189.91 | 240 |
| $189.91 - $265.95 | 414 |
| $265.95 - $341.99 | 208 |
| $341.99 - $418.03 | 81 |
| $418.03 - $494.07 | 20 |
| $494.07 - $570.11 | 18 |
| $570.11 - $646.15 | 6 |
| $646.15 - $722.20 | 7 |
| $722.20 - $798.24 | 1 |
| $798.24 - $874.28 | 1 |
| $874.28 - $950.32 | 1 |
| $950.32 - $1,026.36 | 0 |
| $1,026.36 - $1,102.40 | 2 |
| $1,102.40 - $1,178.44 | 0 |
| $1,178.44 - $1,254.48 | 0 |
| $1,254.48 - $1,330.52 | 0 |
| $1,330.52 - $1,406.56 | 0 |
| $1,406.56 - $1,482.60 | 0 |
| $1,482.60 - $1,558.64 | 0 |
| $1,558.64 - $1,634.68 | 1 |