Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $52,900.00 |
| 5Y Range | 179,022.65 – 428,682.74 |
| 5Y Selected | 303,852.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.92% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $68,701.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 29.87% |
| 10Y Range | 189,464.93 – 437,733.88 |
| 10Y Selected | 313,599.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.92% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $70,904.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 34.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1131 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6381 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0351 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4129 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1489 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4991 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0005 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0240 |
| Safety Score | 0.2261 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.79% | 3.81% | 3.83% | 3.86% | 3.88% | 3.90% | 3.93% | 3.95% | 3.98% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 947,938.78 | 984,045.77 | 1,021,763.02 | 1,061,169.86 | 1,102,349.89 | 1,145,391.14 | 1,190,386.40 | 1,237,433.44 | 1,286,635.34 | 1,338,100.76 |
| EBITDA | 93,829.01 | 97,402.96 | 101,136.30 | 105,036.87 | 109,112.96 | 113,373.27 | 117,827.00 | 122,483.82 | 127,353.93 | 132,448.08 |
| D&A | -21,750.89 | -22,579.38 | -23,444.82 | -24,349.03 | -25,293.92 | -26,281.53 | -27,313.96 | -28,393.48 | -29,522.44 | -30,703.34 |
| EBIT | 72,078.12 | 74,823.58 | 77,691.47 | 80,687.84 | 83,819.03 | 87,091.75 | 90,513.04 | 94,090.34 | 97,831.49 | 101,744.75 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -16,611.19 | -17,243.91 | -17,904.84 | -18,595.39 | -19,317.01 | -20,071.24 | -20,859.71 | -21,684.14 | -22,546.33 | -23,448.18 |
| NOPAT | 55,466.94 | 57,579.67 | 59,786.63 | 62,092.45 | 64,502.03 | 67,020.51 | 69,653.32 | 72,406.20 | 75,285.16 | 78,296.56 |
| Capital Expenditures | -34,347.02 | -35,655.30 | -37,021.93 | -38,449.77 | -39,941.86 | -41,501.39 | -43,131.72 | -44,836.39 | -46,619.14 | -48,483.91 |
| NWC Investment | -6,310.91 | -6,591.10 | -6,885.04 | -7,193.47 | -7,517.15 | -7,856.90 | -8,213.59 | -8,588.13 | -8,981.49 | -9,394.68 |
| (+) D&A | 21,750.89 | 22,579.38 | 23,444.82 | 24,349.03 | 25,293.92 | 26,281.53 | 27,313.96 | 28,393.48 | 29,522.44 | 30,703.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 36,559.90 | 37,912.66 | 39,324.49 | 40,798.25 | 42,336.94 | 43,943.74 | 45,621.97 | 47,375.15 | 49,206.96 | 51,121.31 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 | 4,673,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,335.40 | 36,876.27 | 35,964.70 | 35,062.10 | 34,211.06 | 33,388.33 | 32,592.85 | 31,823.61 | 31,079.65 | 30,360.02 | Raw: 1,261,231.08 988,250.52 |
Raw: 1,522,920.25 877,006.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,166,700.07 | 1,214,700.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| Equity Value | 1,166,695.89 | 1,214,695.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| Fair Value | $249,654.07 | $259,925.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.92% | 80.92% |
| Buy Price | $47,634.00 | $49,593.74 |
| Current Price | $52,900.00 | $52,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -9.95% | -6.25% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,301.42 | 36,721.29 | 35,479.95 | 34,264.11 | 33,121.01 | 32,023.39 | 30,969.24 | 29,956.65 | 28,983.80 | 28,048.97 | Raw: 875,083.40 660,733.97 |
Raw: 1,056,651.92 559,551.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 836,621.76 | 885,421.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| Equity Value | 836,617.58 | 885,416.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| Fair Value | $179,022.65 | $189,464.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.92% | 80.92% |
| Buy Price | $34,157.52 | $36,149.91 |
| Current Price | $52,900.00 | $52,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.43% | -31.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,369.75 | 37,033.37 | 36,460.75 | 35,886.49 | 35,347.80 | 34,825.18 | 34,318.15 | 33,826.25 | 33,349.03 | 32,886.08 | Raw: 2,240,204.96 1,822,247.63 |
Raw: 2,705,018.58 1,695,341.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,003,345.79 | 2,045,644.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| Equity Value | 2,003,341.61 | 2,045,639.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| Fair Value | $428,682.74 | $437,733.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.92% | 80.92% |
| Buy Price | $81,792.67 | $83,519.62 |
| Current Price | $52,900.00 | $52,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 54.62% | 57.88% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,493,195.57 | 2,518,856.15 | 4,249,032.37 | 7,167,648.73 | 12,091,032.44 | 20,396,237.46 | 34,406,201.84 | 58,039,465.72 | 97,906,173.93 | 165,156,911.32 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% | 68.69% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 149.32 | 251.89 | 424.90 | 716.76 | 1,209.10 | 2,039.62 | 3,440.62 | 5,803.95 | 9,790.62 | 16,515.69 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 141.88 | 216.47 | 343.35 | 544.60 | 863.80 | 1,370.09 | 2,173.13 | 3,446.86 | 5,467.15 | 8,671.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $55,600.00 | 2.89% | $150,004.34 | 169.79% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $52,000.00 | 6.23% | $-51,118.08 | -198.30% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $69,500.00 | 7.86% | $72,551.96 | 4.39% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $60,200.00 | 7.28% | $173,637.30 | 188.43% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $48,250.00 | 4.10% | $65,210.85 | 35.15% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $58,700.00 | 2.80% | $54,685.20 | -6.84% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $63,900.00 | -1.59% | $-15,620.87 | -124.45% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $50,100.00 | -4.30% | $63,814.69 | 27.37% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $57,200.00 | -3.75% | $45,599.04 | -20.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $60,400.00 | -0.14% | $138,352.61 | 129.06% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $47,500.00 | 6.17% | $70,761.09 | 48.97% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $31,838.96 | 10.95% | $129,027.06 | 305.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $51,797.35 | 11.32% | $163,959.50 | 216.54% |
| $140,826.06 - $237,423.98 | 370 |
| $237,423.98 - $334,021.90 | 385 |
| $334,021.90 - $430,619.81 | 145 |
| $430,619.81 - $527,217.73 | 50 |
| $527,217.73 - $623,815.64 | 22 |
| $623,815.64 - $720,413.56 | 13 |
| $720,413.56 - $817,011.47 | 3 |
| $817,011.47 - $913,609.39 | 6 |
| $913,609.39 - $1,010,207.30 | 2 |
| $1,010,207.30 - $1,106,805.22 | 2 |
| $1,106,805.22 - $1,203,403.13 | 0 |
| $1,203,403.13 - $1,300,001.05 | 0 |
| $1,300,001.05 - $1,396,598.97 | 1 |
| $1,396,598.97 - $1,493,196.88 | 0 |
| $1,493,196.88 - $1,589,794.80 | 0 |
| $1,589,794.80 - $1,686,392.71 | 0 |
| $1,686,392.71 - $1,782,990.63 | 0 |
| $1,782,990.63 - $1,879,588.54 | 0 |
| $1,879,588.54 - $1,976,186.46 | 0 |
| $1,976,186.46 - $2,072,784.37 | 1 |