Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Valuations
Miscellaneous
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Daou Technology Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$41,150.00
5Y Range2,229,767.61 – 4,991,853.60
5Y Selected3,610,810.60
(-) Safety Margin65.92%
5Y Buy Price$1,324,445.33
Upside (to Buy Price)3,118.58%
10Y Range1,927,847.28 – 3,952,548.49
10Y Selected2,940,197.89
(-) Safety Margin65.92%
10Y Buy Price$1,078,464.59
Upside (to Buy Price)2,520.81%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9650
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9286
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5811
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2910
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0078
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6375
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4094
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6576
Safety Score0.3668

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth24.69%22.39%20.09%17.79%15.49%13.19%10.90%8.60%6.30%4.00%
Revenue14,495,752.3617,741,007.2921,305,028.9925,095,347.0428,983,185.1332,807,172.4736,381,632.0239,509,326.9741,997,803.4943,677,715.63
EBITDA1,740,757.352,130,471.602,558,465.743,013,635.213,480,515.623,939,728.354,368,975.944,744,572.725,043,407.425,245,143.72
D&A-129,305.28-158,253.67-190,045.52-223,855.99-258,536.36-292,647.16-324,532.12-352,431.85-374,629.60-389,614.79
EBIT1,611,452.061,972,217.942,368,420.212,789,779.223,221,979.263,647,081.194,044,443.814,392,140.874,668,777.824,855,528.93
Pro forma Taxes-429,568.81-525,739.07-631,355.71-743,678.43-858,891.08-972,211.56-1,078,137.51-1,170,823.99-1,244,567.79-1,294,350.50
NOPAT1,181,883.251,446,478.861,737,064.512,046,100.792,363,088.182,674,869.632,966,306.303,221,316.893,424,210.033,561,178.43
Capital Expenditures-166,760.65-204,094.40-245,095.28-288,699.49-333,425.58-377,417.13-418,538.09-454,519.42-483,147.11-502,472.99
NWC Investment2,224,946.462,515,900.502,763,026.082,938,463.483,014,066.392,964,565.772,771,118.072,424,761.531,929,204.171,302,360.49
(+) D&A129,305.28158,253.67190,045.52223,855.99258,536.36292,647.16324,532.12352,431.85374,629.60389,614.79
Free Cash Flow3,369,374.363,916,538.634,445,040.844,919,720.775,302,265.345,554,665.435,643,418.415,543,990.845,244,896.694,750,680.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding43,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.0043,152,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.83%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.740.700.650.610.57
PV UFCF3,347,202.193,799,380.144,036,573.844,182,196.294,219,414.854,137,857.093,935,379.733,619,042.733,205,051.092,717,569.59
Raw: 145,955,661.86
112,376,401.97
Raw: 130,772,170.46
72,377,498.51

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value131,961,169.29109,577,166.06
(-) Net Debt18,017.2218,017.22
Equity Value131,943,152.07109,559,148.84
(/) Shares Out43.1543.15
Fair Value$3,057,637.01$2,538,912.42
(-) Safety Margin65.92%65.92%
Buy Price$1,042,042.69$865,261.35
Current Price$41,150.00$41,150.00
Upside (to Buy Price)2,432.30%2,002.70%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.83%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.710.660.610.570.53
PV UFCF3,344,084.873,783,130.563,982,033.594,087,425.674,085,555.563,969,426.993,740,179.223,407,633.792,989,837.602,511,578.48
Raw: 103,706,378.09
76,954,718.70
Raw: 92,917,999.76
47,307,596.92

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value96,236,948.9583,208,483.25
(-) Net Debt18,017.2218,017.22
Equity Value96,218,931.7383,190,466.03
(/) Shares Out43.1543.15
Fair Value$2,229,767.61$1,927,847.28
(-) Safety Margin65.92%65.92%
Buy Price$759,904.80$657,010.35
Current Price$41,150.00$41,150.00
Upside (to Buy Price)1,746.67%1,496.62%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.83%Terminal Growth: 3.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.730.690.660.62
PV UFCF3,350,351.783,815,853.344,092,384.664,280,086.854,358,981.434,315,120.224,142,749.553,845,743.963,438,002.862,942,636.20
Raw: 244,670,446.34
195,528,825.77
Raw: 219,217,842.65
131,996,478.99

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value215,426,483.83170,578,389.84
(-) Net Debt18,017.2218,017.22
Equity Value215,408,466.61170,560,372.62
(/) Shares Out43.1543.15
Fair Value$4,991,853.60$3,952,548.49
(-) Safety Margin65.92%65.92%
Buy Price$1,701,223.71$1,347,028.53
Current Price$41,150.00$41,150.00
Upside (to Buy Price)4,034.20%3,173.46%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$41,150.00
WACC Used6.8%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH56.64%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue24,349,619.0438,141,395.4559,744,920.2293,584,816.44146,591,841.38229,622,376.53359,681,925.74563,408,016.48882,525,838.321,382,393,988.93
Constant Implied Growth56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%56.64%
Implied Free Cash Flow2,434.963,814.145,974.499,358.4814,659.1822,962.2435,968.1956,340.8088,252.58138,239.40
Discount Factor0.950.850.800.740.700.650.610.570.540.50
Present Value of Implied FCF2,305.123,242.354,754.366,971.4510,222.4314,989.4421,979.4432,229.0847,258.4169,296.34

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$19,000.0022.87%$-2,916,672.12-15,450.91%
20182018-12-31$19,100.0031.19%$-1,926,935.00-10,188.66%
20172017-12-31$19,550.0036.01%$-1,330,407.49-6,905.15%
20162016-12-31$18,000.0037.72%$-622,641.93-3,559.12%
20152015-12-31$21,800.0035.88%$-316,900.17-1,553.67%
20142014-12-31$11,950.0026.83%$-245,361.80-2,153.24%
20132013-12-31$15,150.0023.27%$136,139.02798.61%
20122012-12-31$16,600.0045.29%$-69,944.15-521.35%
20112011-12-31$10,300.0052.85%$-274,385.28-2,763.93%
20102010-12-31$8,550.0043.46%$347,746.973,967.22%
20092009-12-31$7,500.00-1.43%$-92,202.28-1,329.36%
20082008-12-31$4,270.00-36.92%$5,218.2122.21%
20072007-12-31$10,150.00-28.87%$15,626.9553.96%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$2,785,920.92
Median
$2,539,923.20
10th Percentile
$1,926,041.30
90th Percentile
$3,921,669.93

Fair Value Distribution

$1,474,057.81 - $1,944,204.13
107
$1,944,204.13 - $2,414,350.45
300
$2,414,350.45 - $2,884,496.77
256
$2,884,496.77 - $3,354,643.09
160
$3,354,643.09 - $3,824,789.41
67
$3,824,789.41 - $4,294,935.73
49
$4,294,935.73 - $4,765,082.05
21
$4,765,082.05 - $5,235,228.37
13
$5,235,228.37 - $5,705,374.68
11
$5,705,374.68 - $6,175,521.00
8
$6,175,521.00 - $6,645,667.32
2
$6,645,667.32 - $7,115,813.64
1
$7,115,813.64 - $7,585,959.96
0
$7,585,959.96 - $8,056,106.28
1
$8,056,106.28 - $8,526,252.60
1
$8,526,252.60 - $8,996,398.92
1
$8,996,398.92 - $9,466,545.23
1
$9,466,545.23 - $9,936,691.55
0
$9,936,691.55 - $10,406,837.87
0
$10,406,837.87 - $10,876,984.19
1