Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.20 |
| 5Y Range | 19.60 – 39.86 |
| 5Y Selected | 29.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.73% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 142.97% |
| 10Y Range | 22.29 – 44.22 |
| 10Y Selected | 33.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.73% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 171.79% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7906 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1602 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9039 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0174 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7742 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0634 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5785 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1444 |
| Safety Score | 0.1798 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.82% | 8.28% | 7.75% | 7.21% | 6.68% | 6.14% | 5.61% | 5.07% | 4.54% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,841.26 | 1,993.81 | 2,148.31 | 2,303.28 | 2,457.09 | 2,608.01 | 2,754.24 | 2,893.91 | 3,025.17 | 3,146.17 |
| EBITDA | 416.63 | 451.14 | 486.10 | 521.17 | 555.97 | 590.12 | 623.21 | 654.81 | 684.51 | 711.89 |
| D&A | -167.93 | -181.84 | -195.93 | -210.06 | -224.09 | -237.85 | -251.19 | -263.93 | -275.90 | -286.94 |
| EBIT | 248.70 | 269.30 | 290.17 | 311.10 | 331.88 | 352.26 | 372.02 | 390.88 | 408.61 | 424.95 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.67 | -0.72 | -0.78 | -0.83 | -0.89 | -0.94 | -1.00 | -1.05 | -1.09 | -1.14 |
| NOPAT | 248.03 | 268.58 | 289.40 | 310.27 | 330.99 | 351.32 | 371.02 | 389.83 | 407.52 | 423.82 |
| Capital Expenditures | -126.02 | -136.46 | -147.04 | -157.64 | -168.17 | -178.50 | -188.51 | -198.07 | -207.05 | -215.34 |
| NWC Investment | 2.93 | 3.00 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 2.87 | 2.74 | 2.58 | 2.38 |
| (+) D&A | 167.93 | 181.84 | 195.93 | 210.06 | 224.09 | 237.85 | 251.19 | 263.93 | 275.90 | 286.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 292.87 | 316.95 | 341.32 | 365.73 | 389.93 | 413.64 | 436.57 | 458.44 | 478.94 | 497.79 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 | 340,200,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 291.09 | 308.21 | 312.31 | 314.89 | 315.91 | 315.33 | 313.17 | 309.44 | 304.20 | 297.51 | Raw: 9,492.38 7,459.92 |
Raw: 12,118.19 7,025.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,002.33 | 10,107.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 121.36 | 121.36 |
| Equity Value | 8,880.96 | 9,986.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 340.20 | 340.20 |
| Fair Value | $26.11 | $29.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.73% | 85.73% |
| Buy Price | $3.73 | $4.19 |
| Current Price | $2.20 | $2.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 69.33% | 90.40% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 290.82 | 306.88 | 308.07 | 307.72 | 305.83 | 302.43 | 297.56 | 291.27 | 283.67 | 274.84 | Raw: 6,957.19 5,268.48 |
Raw: 8,881.70 4,734.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,787.80 | 7,703.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | 121.36 | 121.36 |
| Equity Value | 6,666.44 | 7,582.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 340.20 | 340.20 |
| Fair Value | $19.60 | $22.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.73% | 85.73% |
| Buy Price | $2.80 | $3.18 |
| Current Price | $2.20 | $2.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 27.10% | 44.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 291.37 | 309.55 | 316.65 | 322.30 | 326.41 | 328.91 | 329.76 | 328.93 | 326.43 | 322.28 | Raw: 14,851.50 12,116.83 |
Raw: 18,959.76 11,963.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,683.10 | 15,166.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 121.36 | 121.36 |
| Equity Value | 13,561.74 | 15,044.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 340.20 | 340.20 |
| Fair Value | $39.86 | $44.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.73% | 85.73% |
| Buy Price | $5.69 | $6.31 |
| Current Price | $2.20 | $2.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 158.57% | 186.85% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,626.69 | 9,390.64 | 15,672.47 | 26,156.49 | 43,653.75 | 72,855.73 | 121,592.22 | 202,930.77 | 338,680.36 | 565,239.00 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.56 | 0.94 | 1.57 | 2.62 | 4.37 | 7.29 | 12.16 | 20.29 | 33.87 | 56.52 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.54 | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.99 | 3.13 | 4.92 | 7.72 | 12.13 | 19.05 | 29.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $4.55 | 31.47% | $14.82 | 225.66% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $4.93 | 5.41% | $15.62 | 216.83% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.00 | -20.86% | $7.22 | 3.19% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5.60 | -39.02% | $2.45 | -56.28% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.40 | -21.58% | $5.99 | -6.47% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.81 | 0.38% | $10.55 | 54.95% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.85 | 5.77% | $16.52 | 240.58% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.98 | 11.25% | $27.70 | 595.93% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.14 | 11.51% | $7.93 | 152.42% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.82 | 10.98% | $1.97 | -48.32% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.93 | 5.55% | $-29.84 | -859.25% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.35 | 8.33% | $22.80 | 870.35% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $5.52 | 13.31% | $27.24 | 393.48% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.60 | 16.19% | $16.65 | 540.47% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.22 | 16.08% | $19.22 | 765.56% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.22 | 10.86% | $15.91 | 616.81% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $1.08 | 14.75% | $7.85 | 627.27% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.80 | 16.98% | $7.74 | 867.77% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $0.70 | 26.07% | $-2.32 | -430.96% |
| $17.65 - $24.37 | 232 |
| $24.37 - $31.08 | 364 |
| $31.08 - $37.80 | 217 |
| $37.80 - $44.52 | 98 |
| $44.52 - $51.24 | 40 |
| $51.24 - $57.96 | 24 |
| $57.96 - $64.68 | 10 |
| $64.68 - $71.39 | 6 |
| $71.39 - $78.11 | 5 |
| $78.11 - $84.83 | 1 |
| $84.83 - $91.55 | 1 |
| $91.55 - $98.27 | 0 |
| $98.27 - $104.99 | 1 |
| $104.99 - $111.70 | 0 |
| $111.70 - $118.42 | 0 |
| $118.42 - $125.14 | 0 |
| $125.14 - $131.86 | 0 |
| $131.86 - $138.58 | 0 |
| $138.58 - $145.30 | 0 |
| $145.30 - $152.01 | 1 |