Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5,260.00 |
| 5Y Range | 45,584.56 – 109,164.61 |
| 5Y Selected | 77,374.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.28% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23,405.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 344.98% |
| 10Y Range | 51,901.36 – 121,358.02 |
| 10Y Selected | 86,629.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.28% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $26,205.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 398.20% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6364 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5967 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0267 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5555 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8793 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7340 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2159 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2693 |
| Safety Score | 0.3025 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.11% | 6.76% | 6.42% | 6.07% | 5.73% | 5.38% | 5.04% | 4.69% | 4.35% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 723,737.69 | 772,697.85 | 822,299.57 | 872,243.39 | 922,206.06 | 971,843.36 | 1,020,793.54 | 1,068,681.28 | 1,115,122.03 | 1,159,726.91 |
| EBITDA | 111,575.97 | 119,123.98 | 126,770.89 | 134,470.55 | 142,173.11 | 149,825.50 | 157,371.97 | 164,754.65 | 171,914.25 | 178,790.82 |
| D&A | -27,411.87 | -29,266.26 | -31,144.95 | -33,036.59 | -34,928.95 | -36,808.98 | -38,662.99 | -40,476.76 | -42,235.72 | -43,925.15 |
| EBIT | 84,164.09 | 89,857.71 | 95,625.94 | 101,433.95 | 107,244.16 | 113,016.52 | 118,708.98 | 124,277.89 | 129,678.53 | 134,865.67 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -24,160.47 | -25,794.91 | -27,450.76 | -29,118.03 | -30,785.93 | -32,442.96 | -34,077.06 | -35,675.70 | -37,226.02 | -38,715.06 |
| NOPAT | 60,003.62 | 64,062.81 | 68,175.19 | 72,315.93 | 76,458.23 | 80,573.56 | 84,631.92 | 88,602.19 | 92,452.50 | 96,150.60 |
| Capital Expenditures | -41,523.22 | -44,332.22 | -47,178.04 | -50,043.48 | -52,910.00 | -55,757.86 | -58,566.29 | -61,313.77 | -63,978.23 | -66,537.36 |
| NWC Investment | -8,926.35 | -9,096.33 | -9,215.53 | -9,279.09 | -9,282.59 | -9,222.14 | -9,094.48 | -8,897.09 | -8,628.25 | -8,287.16 |
| (+) D&A | 27,411.87 | 29,266.26 | 31,144.95 | 33,036.59 | 34,928.95 | 36,808.98 | 38,662.99 | 40,476.76 | 42,235.72 | 43,925.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 36,965.93 | 39,900.51 | 42,926.57 | 46,029.95 | 49,194.59 | 52,402.54 | 55,634.14 | 58,868.10 | 62,081.75 | 65,251.23 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 | 20,942,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,738.95 | 38,785.89 | 39,234.85 | 39,558.24 | 39,752.50 | 39,815.31 | 39,745.66 | 39,543.85 | 39,211.50 | 38,751.53 | Raw: 1,454,259.99 1,139,500.30 |
Raw: 1,928,916.64 1,110,807.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,333,570.73 | 1,501,945.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 80.01 | 80.01 |
| Equity Value | 1,333,490.71 | 1,501,865.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.94 | 20.94 |
| Fair Value | $63,673.14 | $71,712.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.28% | 73.28% |
| Buy Price | $17,013.46 | $19,161.69 |
| Current Price | $5,260.00 | $5,260.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 223.45% | 264.29% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,704.58 | 38,619.28 | 38,702.40 | 38,657.92 | 38,485.88 | 38,187.62 | 37,765.72 | 37,223.96 | 36,567.28 | 35,801.70 | Raw: 1,011,288.63 763,576.08 |
Raw: 1,341,363.64 710,320.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 954,746.14 | 1,087,037.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 80.01 | 80.01 |
| Equity Value | 954,666.13 | 1,086,957.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.94 | 20.94 |
| Fair Value | $45,584.56 | $51,901.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.28% | 73.28% |
| Buy Price | $12,180.20 | $13,868.04 |
| Current Price | $5,260.00 | $5,260.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 131.56% | 163.65% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 36,773.67 | 38,954.81 | 39,779.76 | 40,488.34 | 41,073.36 | 41,528.74 | 41,849.59 | 42,032.31 | 42,074.66 | 41,975.79 | Raw: 2,568,407.76 2,089,217.29 |
Raw: 3,406,711.66 2,135,119.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,286,287.24 | 2,541,650.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 80.01 | 80.01 |
| Equity Value | 2,286,207.22 | 2,541,570.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.94 | 20.94 |
| Fair Value | $109,164.61 | $121,358.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.28% | 73.28% |
| Buy Price | $29,168.78 | $32,426.86 |
| Current Price | $5,260.00 | $5,260.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 454.54% | 516.48% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,167,331.01 | 1,847,965.35 | 2,925,456.38 | 4,631,198.85 | 7,331,506.63 | 11,606,279.76 | 18,373,539.92 | 29,086,578.67 | 46,046,056.58 | 72,894,077.73 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% | 58.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 116.73 | 184.80 | 292.55 | 463.12 | 733.15 | 1,160.63 | 1,837.35 | 2,908.66 | 4,604.61 | 7,289.41 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 110.92 | 158.81 | 236.40 | 351.88 | 523.77 | 779.64 | 1,160.49 | 1,727.40 | 2,571.24 | 3,827.31 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5,710.00 | 10.23% | $35,585.49 | 523.21% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5,480.00 | 9.61% | $-6,213.55 | -213.39% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5,210.00 | 12.76% | $14,792.95 | 183.93% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4,810.00 | 6.82% | $-51,000.96 | -1,160.31% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5,780.00 | 9.79% | $-20,310.44 | -451.39% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $5,800.00 | 17.54% | $-28,903.13 | -598.33% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4,880.00 | 11.30% | $3,588.91 | -26.46% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3,335.00 | 5.58% | $-9,900.99 | -396.88% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3,150.00 | -0.50% | $3,724.63 | 18.24% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4,680.00 | -2.44% | $-9,365.65 | -300.12% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5,040.00 | 4.98% | $22,890.70 | 354.18% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3,610.00 | 10.55% | $-1,821.38 | -150.45% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3,700.00 | 7.58% | $12,775.68 | 245.29% |
| $20,413.35 - $46,835.29 | 43 |
| $46,835.29 - $73,257.22 | 495 |
| $73,257.22 - $99,679.16 | 268 |
| $99,679.16 - $126,101.09 | 105 |
| $126,101.09 - $152,523.03 | 41 |
| $152,523.03 - $178,944.97 | 25 |
| $178,944.97 - $205,366.90 | 9 |
| $205,366.90 - $231,788.84 | 5 |
| $231,788.84 - $258,210.78 | 2 |
| $258,210.78 - $284,632.71 | 2 |
| $284,632.71 - $311,054.65 | 2 |
| $311,054.65 - $337,476.59 | 1 |
| $337,476.59 - $363,898.52 | 0 |
| $363,898.52 - $390,320.46 | 0 |
| $390,320.46 - $416,742.40 | 0 |
| $416,742.40 - $443,164.33 | 0 |
| $443,164.33 - $469,586.27 | 0 |
| $469,586.27 - $496,008.21 | 0 |
| $496,008.21 - $522,430.14 | 0 |
| $522,430.14 - $548,852.08 | 2 |