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Kingboard Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$26.62
5Y Range35.77 – 72.52
5Y Selected54.15
(-) Safety Margin85.76%
5Y Buy Price$9.63
Upside (to Buy Price)-63.81%
10Y Range34.61 – 66.65
10Y Selected50.63
(-) Safety Margin85.76%
10Y Buy Price$9.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-66.16%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1775
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2554
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4065
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0098
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3728
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0538
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8889
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0019
Safety Score0.1779

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.75%-0.22%0.31%0.83%1.36%1.89%2.42%2.94%3.47%4.00%
Revenue42,770.8842,676.5642,807.5943,164.8643,752.8444,579.6645,657.2847,001.8348,633.9450,579.30
EBITDA6,263.476,249.656,268.846,321.166,407.276,528.356,686.166,883.067,122.077,406.95
D&A-1,917.26-1,913.04-1,918.91-1,934.93-1,961.28-1,998.35-2,046.65-2,106.92-2,180.08-2,267.29
EBIT4,346.204,336.624,349.934,386.244,445.984,530.004,639.514,776.134,941.985,139.66
Pro forma Taxes-979.47-977.31-980.31-988.49-1,001.96-1,020.89-1,045.57-1,076.36-1,113.74-1,158.29
NOPAT3,366.733,359.303,369.623,397.743,444.033,509.113,593.933,699.773,828.243,981.37
Capital Expenditures-2,866.68-2,860.35-2,869.14-2,893.08-2,932.49-2,987.91-3,060.13-3,150.25-3,259.64-3,390.03
NWC Investment76.2722.32-31.00-84.53-139.11-195.61-254.95-318.10-386.14-460.25
(+) D&A1,917.261,913.041,918.911,934.931,961.281,998.352,046.652,106.922,180.082,267.29
Free Cash Flow2,493.592,434.302,388.392,355.062,333.712,323.932,325.502,338.342,362.552,398.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.001,108,311,802.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.13%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF2,478.302,366.402,183.292,024.421,886.411,766.471,662.231,571.711,493.271,425.50
Raw: 56,543.43
44,321.87
Raw: 58,110.49
33,492.69

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value55,260.6952,350.69
(-) Net Debt2,494.122,494.12
Equity Value52,766.5749,856.57
(/) Shares Out1,108.311,108.31
Fair Value$47.61$44.98
(-) Safety Margin85.76%85.76%
Buy Price$6.78$6.41
Current Price$26.62$26.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.53%-75.94%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF2,475.982,356.242,153.661,978.341,826.301,694.251,579.411,479.501,392.561,316.98
Raw: 41,498.72
31,345.41
Raw: 42,648.83
22,603.82

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value42,135.9340,857.04
(-) Net Debt2,494.122,494.12
Equity Value39,641.8138,362.92
(/) Shares Out1,108.311,108.31
Fair Value$35.77$34.61
(-) Safety Margin85.76%85.76%
Buy Price$5.09$4.93
Current Price$26.62$26.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-80.87%-81.48%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF2,480.642,376.712,213.622,072.021,949.101,842.491,750.221,670.631,602.321,544.12
Raw: 88,211.49
71,781.07
Raw: 90,656.21
56,866.70

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value82,873.1676,368.57
(-) Net Debt2,494.122,494.12
Equity Value80,379.0373,874.45
(/) Shares Out1,108.311,108.31
Fair Value$72.52$66.65
(-) Safety Margin85.76%85.76%
Buy Price$10.33$9.49
Current Price$26.62$26.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-61.20%-64.34%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$26.62
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH73.69%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue148,840.26258,517.28449,012.83779,880.261,354,556.442,352,698.524,086,348.987,097,487.3612,327,465.6921,411,297.06
Constant Implied Growth73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%
Implied Free Cash Flow14.8825.8544.9077.99135.46235.27408.63709.751,232.752,141.13
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF14.2622.2236.3059.2896.82158.14258.28421.85688.991,125.32

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$24.70-3.83%$35.6744.43%
20182018-12-31$20.900.10%$-8.68-141.52%
20172017-12-31$42.503.67%$-49.77-217.11%
20162016-12-31$23.503.37%$167.55612.97%
20152015-12-31$12.381.57%$8.47-31.57%
20142014-12-31$13.105.53%$-13.28-201.35%
20132013-12-31$20.256.73%$-45.74-325.87%
20122012-12-31$22.923.42%$-5.87-125.60%
20112011-12-31$19.17-1.70%$-17.22-189.85%
20102010-12-31$38.79-2.58%$-8.51-121.94%
20092009-12-31$25.670.71%$-16.48-164.21%
20082008-12-31$11.588.74%$9.47-18.18%
20072007-12-31$38.6714.88%$-36.07-193.29%
20062006-12-31$27.0017.97%$21.95-18.69%
20052005-12-31$17.5017.24%$-17.27-198.70%
20042004-12-31$13.7114.31%$-31.64-330.78%
20032003-12-31$9.9622.49%$-32.13-422.61%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$48.18
Median
$44.28
10th Percentile
$34.21
90th Percentile
$66.19

Fair Value Distribution

$23.92 - $30.86
33
$30.86 - $37.81
200
$37.81 - $44.75
282
$44.75 - $51.69
198
$51.69 - $58.64
115
$58.64 - $65.58
67
$65.58 - $72.52
38
$72.52 - $79.46
20
$79.46 - $86.41
17
$86.41 - $93.35
9
$93.35 - $100.29
7
$100.29 - $107.23
7
$107.23 - $114.18
0
$114.18 - $121.12
2
$121.12 - $128.06
3
$128.06 - $135.00
0
$135.00 - $141.95
0
$141.95 - $148.89
1
$148.89 - $155.83
0
$155.83 - $162.77
1