Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5,050.00 |
| 5Y Range | 18,751.01 – 45,052.91 |
| 5Y Selected | 31,901.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.16% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5,860.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 16.05% |
| 10Y Range | 18,067.75 – 41,133.00 |
| 10Y Selected | 29,600.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.16% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5,437.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 7.68% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0160 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7317 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6643 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0056 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6062 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0501 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4018 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0123 |
| Safety Score | 0.1837 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -3.16% | -2.37% | -1.57% | -0.78% | 0.02% | 0.82% | 1.61% | 2.41% | 3.20% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 113,847.34 | 111,151.91 | 109,405.01 | 108,556.37 | 108,578.37 | 109,464.60 | 111,229.34 | 113,907.86 | 117,557.52 | 122,259.82 |
| EBITDA | 32,880.37 | 32,101.90 | 31,597.38 | 31,352.28 | 31,358.64 | 31,614.59 | 32,124.26 | 32,897.85 | 33,951.92 | 35,309.99 |
| D&A | -7,340.43 | -7,166.64 | -7,054.00 | -6,999.29 | -7,000.71 | -7,057.85 | -7,171.63 | -7,344.33 | -7,579.65 | -7,882.83 |
| EBIT | 25,539.94 | 24,935.27 | 24,543.37 | 24,353.00 | 24,357.93 | 24,556.74 | 24,952.63 | 25,553.52 | 26,372.27 | 27,427.16 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -6,171.78 | -6,025.66 | -5,930.95 | -5,884.95 | -5,886.14 | -5,934.18 | -6,029.85 | -6,175.06 | -6,372.91 | -6,627.83 |
| NOPAT | 19,368.17 | 18,909.61 | 18,612.42 | 18,468.05 | 18,471.79 | 18,622.56 | 18,922.78 | 19,378.46 | 19,999.36 | 20,799.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -7,999.84 | -7,810.43 | -7,687.68 | -7,628.05 | -7,629.60 | -7,691.87 | -7,815.87 | -8,004.09 | -8,260.54 | -8,590.97 |
| NWC Investment | 853.38 | 618.47 | 400.83 | 194.72 | -5.05 | -203.35 | -404.92 | -614.59 | -837.42 | -1,078.95 |
| (+) D&A | 7,340.43 | 7,166.64 | 7,054.00 | 6,999.29 | 7,000.71 | 7,057.85 | 7,171.63 | 7,344.33 | 7,579.65 | 7,882.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | 19,562.14 | 18,884.28 | 18,379.57 | 18,034.01 | 17,837.85 | 17,785.19 | 17,873.62 | 18,104.12 | 18,481.04 | 19,012.25 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 | 19,479,494.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19,442.03 | 18,356.75 | 16,798.92 | 15,498.46 | 14,414.17 | 13,513.14 | 12,769.11 | 12,161.19 | 11,672.83 | 11,291.03 | Raw: 540,857.61 423,794.51 |
Raw: 576,466.40 331,970.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 508,304.84 | 477,888.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | -11.95 | -11.95 |
| Equity Value | 508,316.79 | 477,900.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.48 | 19.48 |
| Fair Value | $26,094.97 | $24,533.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.16% | 85.16% |
| Buy Price | $3,872.49 | $3,640.77 |
| Current Price | $5,050.00 | $5,050.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -23.32% | -27.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19,423.84 | 18,277.89 | 16,570.94 | 15,145.73 | 13,954.90 | 12,960.71 | 12,133.02 | 11,447.74 | 10,885.67 | 10,431.54 | Raw: 373,318.40 281,875.02 |
Raw: 397,896.80 210,706.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 365,248.31 | 351,938.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | -11.95 | -11.95 |
| Equity Value | 365,260.26 | 351,950.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.48 | 19.48 |
| Fair Value | $18,751.01 | $18,067.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.16% | 85.16% |
| Buy Price | $2,782.65 | $2,681.25 |
| Current Price | $5,050.00 | $5,050.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -44.90% | -46.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19,460.40 | 18,436.69 | 17,032.22 | 15,862.87 | 14,893.11 | 14,094.67 | 13,445.04 | 12,926.49 | 12,525.16 | 12,230.49 | Raw: 973,546.12 791,910.63 |
Raw: 1,037,642.11 650,330.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 877,595.93 | 801,238.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | -11.95 | -11.95 |
| Equity Value | 877,607.88 | 801,250.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.48 | 19.48 |
| Fair Value | $45,052.91 | $41,133.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.16% | 85.16% |
| Buy Price | $6,685.85 | $6,104.14 |
| Current Price | $5,050.00 | $5,050.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 32.39% | 20.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 221,595.08 | 417,830.62 | 787,844.32 | 1,485,527.02 | 2,801,048.97 | 5,281,543.32 | 9,958,661.97 | 18,777,645.52 | 35,406,360.05 | 66,760,783.76 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 22.16 | 41.78 | 78.78 | 148.55 | 280.10 | 528.15 | 995.87 | 1,877.76 | 3,540.64 | 6,676.08 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 21.22 | 35.91 | 63.66 | 112.87 | 200.11 | 354.78 | 629.00 | 1,115.17 | 1,977.12 | 3,505.28 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3,485.00 | 0.82% | $-2,898.67 | -183.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3,705.00 | -10.05% | $-1,422.33 | -138.39% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $4,850.00 | -13.75% | $5,073.70 | 4.61% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6,490.00 | -12.95% | $6,265.40 | -3.46% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4,820.00 | -9.97% | $6,774.74 | 40.55% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3,765.00 | -4.55% | $-2,755.32 | -173.18% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3,635.00 | -1.33% | $987.10 | -72.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2,990.00 | 0.14% | $-3,370.44 | -212.72% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3,190.00 | 2.27% | $-2,051.27 | -164.30% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2,800.00 | 5.01% | $-2,191.74 | -178.28% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3,650.00 | 10.67% | $-19,703.19 | -639.81% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1,180.00 | 16.39% | $-22,425.28 | -2,000.45% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2,520.00 | 10.99% | $-14,990.91 | -694.88% |
| $13,348.01 - $97,572.43 | 996 |
| $97,572.43 - $181,796.86 | 3 |
| $181,796.86 - $266,021.28 | 0 |
| $266,021.28 - $350,245.70 | 0 |
| $350,245.70 - $434,470.13 | 0 |
| $434,470.13 - $518,694.55 | 0 |
| $518,694.55 - $602,918.98 | 0 |
| $602,918.98 - $687,143.40 | 0 |
| $687,143.40 - $771,367.82 | 0 |
| $771,367.82 - $855,592.25 | 0 |
| $855,592.25 - $939,816.67 | 0 |
| $939,816.67 - $1,024,041.10 | 0 |
| $1,024,041.10 - $1,108,265.52 | 0 |
| $1,108,265.52 - $1,192,489.94 | 0 |
| $1,192,489.94 - $1,276,714.37 | 0 |
| $1,276,714.37 - $1,360,938.79 | 0 |
| $1,360,938.79 - $1,445,163.22 | 0 |
| $1,445,163.22 - $1,529,387.64 | 0 |
| $1,529,387.64 - $1,613,612.06 | 0 |
| $1,613,612.06 - $1,697,836.49 | 0 |