Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $16.05 |
| 5Y Range | 14.93 – 30.90 |
| 5Y Selected | 22.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.46% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.39% |
| 10Y Range | 15.94 – 31.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 23.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.46% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.12% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3814 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7512 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1801 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3656 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1974 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0754 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5724 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1957 |
| Safety Score | 0.2074 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.74% | 1.99% | 2.24% | 2.49% | 2.74% | 2.99% | 3.25% | 3.50% | 3.75% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12,047.74 | 12,287.34 | 12,562.59 | 12,875.60 | 13,228.78 | 13,624.90 | 14,067.13 | 14,559.08 | 15,104.85 | 15,709.04 |
| EBITDA | 6,022.36 | 6,142.13 | 6,279.73 | 6,436.19 | 6,612.73 | 6,810.74 | 7,031.80 | 7,277.72 | 7,550.53 | 7,852.55 |
| D&A | -1,963.48 | -2,002.52 | -2,047.38 | -2,098.40 | -2,155.96 | -2,220.51 | -2,292.59 | -2,372.76 | -2,461.71 | -2,560.18 |
| EBIT | 4,058.89 | 4,139.61 | 4,232.34 | 4,337.79 | 4,456.78 | 4,590.23 | 4,739.22 | 4,904.96 | 5,088.83 | 5,292.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -559.53 | -570.66 | -583.44 | -597.98 | -614.38 | -632.78 | -653.32 | -676.16 | -701.51 | -729.57 |
| NOPAT | 3,499.35 | 3,568.95 | 3,648.90 | 3,739.81 | 3,842.40 | 3,957.45 | 4,085.90 | 4,228.79 | 4,387.31 | 4,562.81 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,126.19 | -2,168.48 | -2,217.05 | -2,272.29 | -2,334.62 | -2,404.53 | -2,482.57 | -2,569.39 | -2,665.71 | -2,772.34 |
| NWC Investment | 11.76 | 13.69 | 15.73 | 17.89 | 20.18 | 22.64 | 25.27 | 28.12 | 31.19 | 34.53 |
| (+) D&A | 1,963.48 | 2,002.52 | 2,047.38 | 2,098.40 | 2,155.96 | 2,220.51 | 2,292.59 | 2,372.76 | 2,461.71 | 2,560.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,348.40 | 3,416.69 | 3,494.96 | 3,583.81 | 3,683.91 | 3,796.07 | 3,921.19 | 4,060.28 | 4,214.50 | 4,385.17 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 | 4,184,992,047.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,327.35 | 3,319.01 | 3,187.57 | 3,068.86 | 2,961.80 | 2,865.47 | 2,779.03 | 2,701.76 | 2,633.00 | 2,572.21 | Raw: 91,247.87 71,084.79 |
Raw: 108,617.54 61,734.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 86,949.38 | 91,150.44 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,163.99 | 3,163.99 |
| Equity Value | 83,785.39 | 87,986.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 |
| Fair Value | $20.02 | $21.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.46% | 82.46% |
| Buy Price | $3.51 | $3.69 |
| Current Price | $16.05 | $16.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.12% | -77.02% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,324.24 | 3,304.77 | 3,144.37 | 2,999.11 | 2,867.57 | 2,748.49 | 2,640.79 | 2,543.48 | 2,455.70 | 2,376.68 | Raw: 66,623.41 50,016.01 |
Raw: 79,305.64 41,454.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 65,656.08 | 69,859.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,163.99 | 3,163.99 |
| Equity Value | 62,492.08 | 66,695.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 |
| Fair Value | $14.93 | $15.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.46% | 82.46% |
| Buy Price | $2.62 | $2.80 |
| Current Price | $16.05 | $16.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.68% | -82.58% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,330.49 | 3,333.44 | 3,231.77 | 3,140.90 | 3,060.07 | 2,988.60 | 2,925.92 | 2,871.52 | 2,824.97 | 2,785.90 | Raw: 143,927.27 116,391.27 |
Raw: 171,324.83 105,963.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 132,487.95 | 136,456.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,163.99 | 3,163.99 |
| Equity Value | 129,323.96 | 133,292.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,184.99 | 4,184.99 |
| Fair Value | $30.90 | $31.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.46% | 82.46% |
| Buy Price | $5.42 | $5.59 |
| Current Price | $16.05 | $16.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.23% | -65.19% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 51,569.47 | 110,919.69 | 238,574.82 | 513,145.56 | 1,103,713.95 | 2,373,955.06 | 5,106,089.85 | 10,982,580.96 | 23,622,201.73 | 50,808,495.41 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% | 115.09% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.16 | 11.09 | 23.86 | 51.31 | 110.37 | 237.40 | 510.61 | 1,098.26 | 2,362.22 | 5,080.85 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.93 | 9.50 | 19.18 | 38.73 | 78.22 | 157.97 | 319.00 | 644.21 | 1,300.93 | 2,627.15 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $13.18 | 0.85% | $-2.38 | -118.04% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $14.10 | 3.82% | $9.97 | -29.27% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $20.75 | 3.01% | $15.09 | -27.27% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $19.24 | 1.83% | $11.48 | -40.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $24.65 | -0.13% | $14.23 | -42.28% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $26.05 | 1.75% | $5.15 | -80.24% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $28.30 | 1.14% | $1.32 | -95.35% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $24.85 | -4.22% | $4.41 | -82.23% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $22.55 | -5.61% | $10.10 | -55.21% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $30.70 | -1.21% | $8.49 | -72.36% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.25 | 12.21% | $11.43 | -54.72% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $14.98 | 27.78% | $23.44 | 56.48% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $48.50 | 28.59% | $13.48 | -72.22% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $31.40 | 10.69% | $-1.11 | -103.55% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $16.85 | -1.25% | $-4.00 | -123.72% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $14.65 | -30.57% | $-1.13 | -107.74% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $10.25 | -34.92% | $0.46 | -95.50% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $5.45 | 7.11% | $1.85 | -65.98% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $5.00 | 35.10% | $9.67 | 93.34% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $5.65 | 68.28% | $38.22 | 576.39% |
| $11.82 - $16.48 | 149 |
| $16.48 - $21.14 | 347 |
| $21.14 - $25.79 | 255 |
| $25.79 - $30.45 | 122 |
| $30.45 - $35.11 | 61 |
| $35.11 - $39.77 | 28 |
| $39.77 - $44.43 | 17 |
| $44.43 - $49.08 | 8 |
| $49.08 - $53.74 | 5 |
| $53.74 - $58.40 | 2 |
| $58.40 - $63.06 | 2 |
| $63.06 - $67.72 | 1 |
| $67.72 - $72.38 | 1 |
| $72.38 - $77.03 | 0 |
| $77.03 - $81.69 | 0 |
| $81.69 - $86.35 | 1 |
| $86.35 - $91.01 | 0 |
| $91.01 - $95.67 | 0 |
| $95.67 - $100.33 | 0 |
| $100.33 - $104.98 | 1 |