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Yuexiu Property Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$4.19
5Y Range-45.73 – -22.35
5Y Selected-34.04
(-) Safety Margin81.72%
5Y Buy Price$-7.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-280.10%
10Y Range-14.85 – -11.15
10Y Selected-13.00
(-) Safety Margin81.72%
10Y Buy Price$-2.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-168.79%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9743
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9438
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7174
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0939
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5695
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2264
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1533
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2190
Safety Score0.2217

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.25%10.45%9.64%8.84%8.03%7.22%6.42%5.61%4.81%4.00%
Revenue96,124.23106,167.44116,404.25126,689.87136,863.19146,750.29156,168.81164,933.07172,859.78179,774.18
EBITDA6,413.757,083.877,766.918,453.209,132.009,791.7110,420.1511,004.9311,533.8311,995.18
D&A-496.95-548.87-601.80-654.97-707.57-758.68-807.37-852.68-893.66-929.41
EBIT5,916.806,535.007,165.117,798.238,424.449,033.039,612.7710,152.2410,640.1611,065.77
Pro forma Taxes-3,075.52-3,396.86-3,724.39-4,053.48-4,378.98-4,695.32-4,996.67-5,277.08-5,530.70-5,751.93
NOPAT2,841.283,138.143,440.723,744.754,045.464,337.714,616.104,875.165,109.465,313.84
Capital Expenditures-1,072.02-1,184.03-1,298.19-1,412.90-1,526.36-1,636.62-1,741.66-1,839.41-1,927.81-2,004.92
NWC Investment-6,957.56-7,186.20-7,324.72-7,359.65-7,279.30-7,074.50-6,739.22-6,271.07-5,671.79-4,947.44
(+) D&A496.95548.87601.80654.97707.57758.68807.37852.68893.66929.41
Free Cash Flow-4,691.35-4,683.21-4,580.40-4,372.83-4,052.63-3,614.74-3,057.40-2,382.63-1,596.47-709.11
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.004,025,393,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.19%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF-4,663.24-4,558.25-4,198.13-3,771.84-3,291.75-2,764.81-2,202.12-1,616.01-1,019.64-426.48
Raw: -111,562.60
-87,934.20
Raw: -19,520.77
-11,392.79

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-108,417.41-39,905.05
(-) Net Debt9,649.139,649.13
Equity Value-118,066.54-49,554.18
(/) Shares Out4,025.394,025.39
Fair Value$-29.33$-12.31
(-) Safety Margin81.72%81.72%
Buy Price$-5.36$-2.25
Current Price$4.19$4.19
Upside (to Buy Price)-227.96%-153.71%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.19%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.790.730.680.640.600.56
PV UFCF-4,658.87-4,539.07-4,141.47-3,685.87-3,186.71-2,651.62-2,092.26-1,521.07-950.78-393.97
Raw: -79,131.11
-60,099.02
Raw: -13,846.04
-7,429.97

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-80,311.00-35,251.65
(-) Net Debt9,649.139,649.13
Equity Value-89,960.13-44,900.78
(/) Shares Out4,025.394,025.39
Fair Value$-22.35$-11.15
(-) Safety Margin81.72%81.72%
Buy Price$-4.09$-2.04
Current Price$4.19$4.19
Upside (to Buy Price)-197.50%-148.66%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.19%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.800.760.720.690.65
PV UFCF-4,667.65-4,577.70-4,256.12-3,860.66-3,401.29-2,883.98-2,318.86-1,717.86-1,094.21-462.02
Raw: -187,773.05
-153,654.08
Raw: -32,855.76
-20,871.87

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-174,417.51-50,112.22
(-) Net Debt9,649.139,649.13
Equity Value-184,066.64-59,761.35
(/) Shares Out4,025.394,025.39
Fair Value$-45.73$-14.85
(-) Safety Margin81.72%81.72%
Buy Price$-8.36$-2.71
Current Price$4.19$4.19
Upside (to Buy Price)-299.49%-164.77%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$4.19
WACC Used6.2%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH57.03%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue285,944.50449,004.77705,050.401,107,106.431,738,435.492,729,780.874,286,442.416,730,792.4810,569,036.7516,596,045.44
Constant Implied Growth57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%57.03%
Implied Free Cash Flow28.5944.9070.51110.71173.84272.98428.64673.081,056.901,659.60
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.680.640.600.570.53
Present Value of Implied FCF27.4238.7357.2784.68125.21185.15273.77404.81598.57885.09

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$7.669.99%$32.11319.22%
20182018-12-31$6.0214.20%$93.551,454.02%
20172017-12-31$5.7818.78%$-75.59-1,407.81%
20162016-12-31$4.5216.73%$48.42971.16%
20152015-12-31$5.3414.32%$-13.50-352.88%
20142014-12-31$5.719.85%$-74.47-1,404.24%
20132013-12-31$7.106.66%$-51.70-828.20%
20122012-12-31$9.386.26%$-50.24-635.62%
20112011-12-31$4.3317.59%$-103.89-2,499.31%
20102010-12-31$8.4019.62%$-176.51-2,201.36%
20092009-12-31$8.8820.16%$-27.55-410.23%
20082008-12-31$2.9019.35%$-30.66-1,157.29%
20072007-12-31$9.4415.87%$-83.80-987.72%
20062006-12-31$9.826.48%$0.56-94.27%
20052005-12-31$3.66-1.08%$0.63-82.67%
20042004-12-31$3.64-1.91%$5.7457.64%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-12.82
Median
$-12.30
10th Percentile
$-14.83
90th Percentile
$-11.09

Fair Value Distribution

$-31.67 - $-30.59
1
$-30.59 - $-29.51
0
$-29.51 - $-28.43
1
$-28.43 - $-27.35
1
$-27.35 - $-26.27
2
$-26.27 - $-25.19
1
$-25.19 - $-24.11
2
$-24.11 - $-23.03
0
$-23.03 - $-21.95
2
$-21.95 - $-20.87
1
$-20.87 - $-19.79
2
$-19.79 - $-18.71
4
$-18.71 - $-17.63
7
$-17.63 - $-16.55
20
$-16.55 - $-15.47
24
$-15.47 - $-14.39
70
$-14.39 - $-13.31
131
$-13.31 - $-12.23
261
$-12.23 - $-11.15
354
$-11.15 - $-10.07
115