Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.20 |
| 5Y Range | 34.54 – 69.08 |
| 5Y Selected | 51.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -19.87% |
| 10Y Range | 40.27 – 78.91 |
| 10Y Selected | 59.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -7.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4463 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4218 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4029 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1301 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1720 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4756 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0441 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0264 |
| Safety Score | 0.1887 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.28% | 6.02% | 5.77% | 5.52% | 5.26% | 5.01% | 4.76% | 4.51% | 4.25% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 22,505.17 | 23,860.81 | 25,237.75 | 26,630.31 | 28,032.35 | 29,437.28 | 30,838.17 | 32,227.71 | 33,598.35 | 34,942.28 |
| EBITDA | 2,197.57 | 2,329.94 | 2,464.39 | 2,600.37 | 2,737.28 | 2,874.47 | 3,011.26 | 3,146.94 | 3,280.78 | 3,412.01 |
| D&A | -614.38 | -651.39 | -688.98 | -726.99 | -765.27 | -803.62 | -841.87 | -879.80 | -917.22 | -953.91 |
| EBIT | 1,583.19 | 1,678.55 | 1,775.42 | 1,873.38 | 1,972.01 | 2,070.84 | 2,169.39 | 2,267.14 | 2,363.56 | 2,458.11 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -379.21 | -402.05 | -425.25 | -448.72 | -472.34 | -496.02 | -519.62 | -543.03 | -566.13 | -588.77 |
| NOPAT | 1,203.98 | 1,276.50 | 1,350.16 | 1,424.66 | 1,499.67 | 1,574.83 | 1,649.77 | 1,724.11 | 1,797.44 | 1,869.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -366.95 | -389.05 | -411.50 | -434.21 | -457.07 | -479.97 | -502.82 | -525.47 | -547.82 | -569.73 |
| NWC Investment | -386.09 | -393.79 | -399.97 | -404.51 | -407.26 | -408.11 | -406.93 | -403.63 | -398.14 | -390.39 |
| (+) D&A | 614.38 | 651.39 | 688.98 | 726.99 | 765.27 | 803.62 | 841.87 | 879.80 | 917.22 | 953.91 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,065.32 | 1,145.05 | 1,227.67 | 1,312.94 | 1,400.61 | 1,490.37 | 1,581.89 | 1,674.80 | 1,768.69 | 1,863.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 | 675,605,230.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,058.63 | 1,112.33 | 1,119.73 | 1,124.36 | 1,126.17 | 1,125.14 | 1,121.29 | 1,114.63 | 1,105.21 | 1,093.10 | Raw: 33,331.39 25,968.94 |
Raw: 44,338.21 25,206.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,510.15 | 36,307.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 582.71 | 582.71 |
| Equity Value | 30,927.45 | 35,724.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 675.61 | 675.61 |
| Fair Value | $45.78 | $52.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $7.17 | $8.28 |
| Current Price | $12.20 | $12.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -41.24% | -32.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,057.64 | 1,107.56 | 1,104.56 | 1,098.81 | 1,090.34 | 1,079.21 | 1,065.51 | 1,049.33 | 1,030.79 | 1,010.01 | Raw: 24,582.87 18,457.00 |
Raw: 32,700.72 17,097.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,915.90 | 27,790.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 582.71 | 582.71 |
| Equity Value | 23,333.19 | 27,208.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 675.61 | 675.61 |
| Fair Value | $34.54 | $40.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $5.41 | $6.31 |
| Current Price | $12.20 | $12.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.67% | -48.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,059.63 | 1,117.17 | 1,135.26 | 1,150.76 | 1,163.53 | 1,173.49 | 1,180.56 | 1,184.67 | 1,185.79 | 1,183.92 | Raw: 51,470.19 41,627.50 |
Raw: 68,466.87 42,356.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,253.85 | 53,891.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 582.71 | 582.71 |
| Equity Value | 46,671.14 | 53,308.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 675.61 | 675.61 |
| Fair Value | $69.08 | $78.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.34% | 84.34% |
| Buy Price | $10.82 | $12.36 |
| Current Price | $12.20 | $12.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -11.33% | 1.28% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 72,448.88 | 118,684.56 | 194,427.10 | 318,507.29 | 521,773.42 | 854,760.65 | 1,400,254.88 | 2,293,874.57 | 3,757,787.68 | 6,155,946.13 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% | 63.82% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 7.24 | 11.87 | 19.44 | 31.85 | 52.18 | 85.48 | 140.03 | 229.39 | 375.78 | 615.59 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.93 | 10.16 | 15.63 | 24.05 | 36.98 | 56.89 | 87.50 | 134.58 | 207.00 | 318.40 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.69 | 8.21% | $1.10 | -88.62% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $11.62 | 10.03% | $18.49 | 59.16% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $18.74 | 3.93% | $-4.99 | -126.60% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $14.40 | 3.30% | $1.68 | -88.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $12.76 | -0.79% | $25.61 | 100.73% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $20.40 | 0.09% | $2.61 | -87.19% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $22.10 | -1.84% | $10.38 | -53.03% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $17.98 | -10.05% | $8.32 | -53.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $17.50 | -5.29% | $-4.48 | -125.58% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $19.00 | 2.64% | $-24.92 | -231.18% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.30 | 13.00% | $9.71 | 4.41% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $4.01 | 21.26% | $-2.07 | -151.69% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $13.46 | 14.71% | $-1.54 | -111.43% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $4.51 | 14.13% | $9.93 | 120.12% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.95 | 10.60% | $-3.46 | -217.16% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.60 | 13.42% | $1.87 | -47.98% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.15 | 9.98% | $-1.48 | -169.01% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.15 | -1.15% | $3.18 | 176.25% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.27 | -2.53% | $1.19 | -6.11% |
| $32.36 - $40.96 | 116 |
| $40.96 - $49.56 | 286 |
| $49.56 - $58.16 | 232 |
| $58.16 - $66.76 | 167 |
| $66.76 - $75.36 | 86 |
| $75.36 - $83.96 | 39 |
| $83.96 - $92.55 | 28 |
| $92.55 - $101.15 | 19 |
| $101.15 - $109.75 | 8 |
| $109.75 - $118.35 | 4 |
| $118.35 - $126.95 | 3 |
| $126.95 - $135.55 | 5 |
| $135.55 - $144.14 | 0 |
| $144.14 - $152.74 | 1 |
| $152.74 - $161.34 | 2 |
| $161.34 - $169.94 | 1 |
| $169.94 - $178.54 | 2 |
| $178.54 - $187.14 | 0 |
| $187.14 - $195.74 | 0 |
| $195.74 - $204.33 | 0 |