| Current Price | $5.87 |
| 5Y Range | 13.29 – 25.74 |
| 5Y Selected | 19.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.50% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -37.81% |
| 10Y Range | 13.47 – 25.12 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.50% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.49% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0727 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6956 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2800 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1885 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3079 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1286 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8239 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| Safety Score | 0.1871 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -4.66% | -3.70% | -2.74% | -1.77% | -0.81% | 0.15% | 1.11% | 2.08% | 3.04% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,832.18 | 1,764.39 | 1,716.10 | 1,685.64 | 1,671.95 | 1,674.46 | 1,693.10 | 1,728.23 | 1,780.73 | 1,851.95 |
| EBITDA | 359.86 | 346.54 | 337.06 | 331.08 | 328.39 | 328.88 | 332.54 | 339.44 | 349.75 | 363.74 |
| D&A | -106.65 | -102.70 | -99.89 | -98.12 | -97.32 | -97.47 | -98.55 | -100.60 | -103.65 | -107.80 |
| EBIT | 253.21 | 243.84 | 237.17 | 232.96 | 231.06 | 231.41 | 233.99 | 238.84 | 246.10 | 255.94 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -24.85 | -23.93 | -23.28 | -22.87 | -22.68 | -22.72 | -22.97 | -23.44 | -24.16 | -25.12 |
| NOPAT | 228.35 | 219.90 | 213.89 | 210.09 | 208.38 | 208.70 | 211.02 | 215.40 | 221.94 | 230.82 |
| Capital Expenditures | -33.99 | -32.73 | -31.83 | -31.27 | -31.01 | -31.06 | -31.41 | -32.06 | -33.03 | -34.35 |
| NWC Investment | -2.21 | -1.67 | -1.19 | -0.75 | -0.34 | 0.06 | 0.46 | 0.87 | 1.29 | 1.75 |
| (+) D&A | 106.65 | 102.70 | 99.89 | 98.12 | 97.32 | 97.47 | 98.55 | 100.60 | 103.65 | 107.80 |
| Free Cash Flow | 298.81 | 288.21 | 280.76 | 276.19 | 274.36 | 275.17 | 278.63 | 284.80 | 293.86 | 306.02 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 | 391,136,338.25 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 296.93 | 275.77 | 252.07 | 232.82 | 217.15 | 204.49 | 194.41 | 186.58 | 180.75 | 176.74 | Raw: 6,753.06 5,179.14 |
Raw: 7,532.46 4,215.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,453.89 | 6,433.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | -300.33 | -300.33 |
| Equity Value | 6,754.23 | 6,733.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 391.14 | 391.14 |
| Fair Value | $17.27 | $17.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.50% | 84.50% |
| Buy Price | $2.68 | $2.67 |
| Current Price | $5.87 | $5.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.40% | -54.54% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 296.65 | 273.97 | 248.07 | 227.00 | 209.75 | 195.68 | 184.31 | 175.24 | 168.19 | 162.92 | Raw: 4,938.52 3,641.39 |
Raw: 5,508.50 2,828.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,896.85 | 4,970.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -300.33 | -300.33 |
| Equity Value | 5,197.18 | 5,270.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 391.14 | 391.14 |
| Fair Value | $13.29 | $13.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.50% | 84.50% |
| Buy Price | $2.06 | $2.09 |
| Current Price | $5.87 | $5.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.91% | -64.42% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 297.21 | 277.60 | 256.17 | 238.85 | 224.88 | 213.78 | 205.17 | 198.77 | 194.39 | 191.87 | Raw: 10,615.55 8,471.26 |
Raw: 11,840.74 7,227.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,765.98 | 9,526.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | -300.33 | -300.33 |
| Equity Value | 10,066.31 | 9,826.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 391.14 | 391.14 |
| Fair Value | $25.74 | $25.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.50% | 84.50% |
| Buy Price | $3.99 | $3.89 |
| Current Price | $5.87 | $5.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.04% | -33.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,198.67 | 12,881.51 | 23,050.54 | 41,247.29 | 73,809.09 | 132,076.10 | 236,340.77 | 422,914.96 | 756,776.16 | 1,354,197.00 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.72 | 1.29 | 2.31 | 4.12 | 7.38 | 13.21 | 23.63 | 42.29 | 75.68 | 135.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.70 | 1.16 | 1.94 | 3.26 | 5.49 | 9.22 | 15.48 | 26.01 | 43.71 | 73.43 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $3.81 | -1.59% | $29.03 | 661.87% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $4.15 | -4.58% | $24.92 | 500.41% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $2.85 | -16.07% | $8.29 | 191.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $2.77 | -17.62% | $3.30 | 19.14% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $2.25 | -9.54% | $5.67 | 151.90% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $3.35 | -2.87% | $4.87 | 45.43% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $4.49 | -2.19% | $6.04 | 34.60% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $4.38 | -7.14% | $11.82 | 169.83% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $4.28 | -7.88% | $-3.52 | -182.36% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $5.78 | -2.46% | $14.43 | 149.61% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $4.73 | 4.75% | $38.96 | 723.73% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $2.03 | 5.25% | $4.19 | 106.20% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $5.29 | 2.37% | $11.48 | 117.06% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $9.00 | -1.89% | $0.12 | -98.62% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $10.90 | -3.04% | $-2.70 | -124.75% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $12.64 | 3.04% | $16.25 | 28.55% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $7.02 | 5.28% | $16.01 | 128.02% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $1.19 | 6.52% | $13.87 | 1,065.28% |
| $9.60 - $14.25 | 164 |
| $14.25 - $18.89 | 478 |
| $18.89 - $23.54 | 210 |
| $23.54 - $28.19 | 81 |
| $28.19 - $32.83 | 30 |
| $32.83 - $37.48 | 18 |
| $37.48 - $42.13 | 6 |
| $42.13 - $46.77 | 6 |
| $46.77 - $51.42 | 3 |
| $51.42 - $56.07 | 0 |
| $56.07 - $60.71 | 1 |
| $60.71 - $65.36 | 1 |
| $65.36 - $70.01 | 1 |
| $70.01 - $74.65 | 0 |
| $74.65 - $79.30 | 0 |
| $79.30 - $83.95 | 0 |
| $83.95 - $88.59 | 0 |
| $88.59 - $93.24 | 0 |
| $93.24 - $97.89 | 0 |
| $97.89 - $102.53 | 1 |