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Dickson Concepts (International) Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$5.87
5Y Range13.29 – 25.74
5Y Selected19.51
(-) Safety Margin84.50%
5Y Buy Price$3.65
Upside (to Buy Price)-37.81%
10Y Range13.47 – 25.12
10Y Selected19.30
(-) Safety Margin84.50%
10Y Buy Price$3.61
Upside (to Buy Price)-38.49%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0727
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6956
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2800
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1885
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3079
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1286
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8239
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0002
Safety Score0.1871

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth-4.66%-3.70%-2.74%-1.77%-0.81%0.15%1.11%2.08%3.04%4.00%
Revenue1,832.181,764.391,716.101,685.641,671.951,674.461,693.101,728.231,780.731,851.95
EBITDA359.86346.54337.06331.08328.39328.88332.54339.44349.75363.74
D&A-106.65-102.70-99.89-98.12-97.32-97.47-98.55-100.60-103.65-107.80
EBIT253.21243.84237.17232.96231.06231.41233.99238.84246.10255.94
Pro forma Taxes-24.85-23.93-23.28-22.87-22.68-22.72-22.97-23.44-24.16-25.12
NOPAT228.35219.90213.89210.09208.38208.70211.02215.40221.94230.82
Capital Expenditures-33.99-32.73-31.83-31.27-31.01-31.06-31.41-32.06-33.03-34.35
NWC Investment-2.21-1.67-1.19-0.75-0.340.060.460.871.291.75
(+) D&A106.65102.7099.8998.1297.3297.4798.55100.60103.65107.80
Free Cash Flow298.81288.21280.76276.19274.36275.17278.63284.80293.86306.02
Diluted Shares Outstanding391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25391,136,338.25

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33Mar-34Mar-35
Period Start9/30/254/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/324/1/334/1/34
Period End3/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/333/31/343/31/35
Mid-Point12/30/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/329/30/339/30/34
Time (t)0.100.701.712.713.714.715.716.717.718.71
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.51%Terminal Growth: 2.35%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.840.790.740.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF296.93275.77252.07232.82217.15204.49194.41186.58180.75176.74
Raw: 6,753.06
5,179.14
Raw: 7,532.46
4,215.28

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,453.896,433.00
(-) Net Debt-300.33-300.33
Equity Value6,754.236,733.33
(/) Shares Out391.14391.14
Fair Value$17.27$17.21
(-) Safety Margin84.50%84.50%
Buy Price$2.68$2.67
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.40%-54.54%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.51%Terminal Growth: 1.85%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.880.820.760.710.660.620.570.53
PV UFCF296.65273.97248.07227.00209.75195.68184.31175.24168.19162.92
Raw: 4,938.52
3,641.39
Raw: 5,508.50
2,828.42

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,896.854,970.21
(-) Net Debt-300.33-300.33
Equity Value5,197.185,270.54
(/) Shares Out391.14391.14
Fair Value$13.29$13.47
(-) Safety Margin84.50%84.50%
Buy Price$2.06$2.09
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-64.91%-64.42%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.51%Terminal Growth: 2.85%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.910.860.820.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF297.21277.60256.17238.85224.88213.78205.17198.77194.39191.87
Raw: 10,615.55
8,471.26
Raw: 11,840.74
7,227.72

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,765.989,526.42
(-) Net Debt-300.33-300.33
Equity Value10,066.319,826.75
(/) Shares Out391.14391.14
Fair Value$25.74$25.12
(-) Safety Margin84.50%84.50%
Buy Price$3.99$3.89
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-32.04%-33.66%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$5.87
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH78.94%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,198.6712,881.5123,050.5441,247.2973,809.09132,076.10236,340.77422,914.96756,776.161,354,197.00
Constant Implied Growth78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%78.94%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.721.292.314.127.3813.2123.6342.2975.68135.42
Discount Factor0.970.900.840.790.740.700.660.620.580.54
Present Value of Implied FCF0.701.161.943.265.499.2215.4826.0143.7173.43

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-03-31$3.81-1.59%$29.03661.87%
20192019-03-31$4.15-4.58%$24.92500.41%
20182018-03-31$2.85-16.07%$8.29191.05%
20172017-03-31$2.77-17.62%$3.3019.14%
20162016-03-31$2.25-9.54%$5.67151.90%
20152015-03-31$3.35-2.87%$4.8745.43%
20142014-03-31$4.49-2.19%$6.0434.60%
20132013-03-31$4.38-7.14%$11.82169.83%
20122012-03-31$4.28-7.88%$-3.52-182.36%
20112011-03-31$5.78-2.46%$14.43149.61%
20102010-03-31$4.734.75%$38.96723.73%
20092009-03-31$2.035.25%$4.19106.20%
20082008-03-31$5.292.37%$11.48117.06%
20072007-03-31$9.00-1.89%$0.12-98.62%
20062006-03-31$10.90-3.04%$-2.70-124.75%
20052005-03-31$12.643.04%$16.2528.55%
20042004-03-31$7.025.28%$16.01128.02%
20032003-03-31$1.196.52%$13.871,065.28%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$18.95
Median
$17.40
10th Percentile
$13.42
90th Percentile
$25.82

Fair Value Distribution

$9.60 - $14.25
164
$14.25 - $18.89
478
$18.89 - $23.54
210
$23.54 - $28.19
81
$28.19 - $32.83
30
$32.83 - $37.48
18
$37.48 - $42.13
6
$42.13 - $46.77
6
$46.77 - $51.42
3
$51.42 - $56.07
0
$56.07 - $60.71
1
$60.71 - $65.36
1
$65.36 - $70.01
1
$70.01 - $74.65
0
$74.65 - $79.30
0
$79.30 - $83.95
0
$83.95 - $88.59
0
$88.59 - $93.24
0
$93.24 - $97.89
0
$97.89 - $102.53
1