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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$7.41
5Y Range-61.78 – -24.49
5Y Selected-43.14
(-) Safety Margin66.12%
5Y Buy Price$-16.08
Upside (to Buy Price)-316.96%
10Y Range-62.04 – -25.62
10Y Selected-43.83
(-) Safety Margin66.12%
10Y Buy Price$-16.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-320.46%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8963
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9822
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0013
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6696
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1333
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8198
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0224
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0346
Safety Score0.3727

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.20%9.51%8.82%8.13%7.44%6.75%6.07%5.38%4.69%4.00%
Revenue20,777.5422,753.4524,760.5626,774.1828,767.1530,710.3532,573.3034,324.9135,934.3237,371.69
EBITDA710.64778.22846.87915.74983.911,050.371,114.091,174.001,229.041,278.20
D&A-645.05-706.40-768.71-831.22-893.10-953.42-1,011.26-1,065.64-1,115.61-1,160.23
EBIT65.5971.8378.1684.5290.8196.94102.83108.35113.44117.97
Pro forma Taxes-9.50-10.40-11.32-12.24-13.15-14.04-14.89-15.69-16.43-17.08
NOPAT56.0961.4266.8472.2877.6682.9187.9392.6697.01100.89
Capital Expenditures-1,004.62-1,100.15-1,197.20-1,294.56-1,390.92-1,484.88-1,574.95-1,659.65-1,737.46-1,806.96
NWC Investment-88.22-90.65-92.08-92.38-91.43-89.15-85.47-80.36-73.83-65.94
(+) D&A645.05706.40768.71831.22893.10953.421,011.261,065.641,115.611,160.23
Free Cash Flow-391.69-422.98-453.73-483.44-511.60-537.70-561.22-581.70-598.68-611.78
Diluted Shares Outstanding420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00420,649,067.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.42%Terminal Growth: 3.11%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-389.26-411.05-414.34-414.85-412.54-407.44-399.63-389.23-376.44-361.48
Raw: -15,970.16
-12,483.73
Raw: -19,097.60
-10,938.48

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-14,525.77-14,914.74
(-) Net Debt58.4058.40
Equity Value-14,584.17-14,973.13
(/) Shares Out420.65420.65
Fair Value$-34.67$-35.60
(-) Safety Margin66.12%66.12%
Buy Price$-11.75$-12.06
Current Price$7.41$7.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-258.52%-262.75%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.42%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-388.90-409.29-408.72-405.41-399.41-390.80-379.73-366.41-351.07-333.98
Raw: -10,929.57
-8,232.89
Raw: -13,069.91
-6,884.22

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-10,244.62-10,717.93
(-) Net Debt58.4058.40
Equity Value-10,303.01-10,776.32
(/) Shares Out420.65420.65
Fair Value$-24.49$-25.62
(-) Safety Margin66.12%66.12%
Buy Price$-8.30$-8.68
Current Price$7.41$7.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-211.99%-217.13%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.42%Terminal Growth: 3.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF-389.63-412.84-420.09-424.60-426.24-424.97-420.77-413.71-403.91-391.54
Raw: -29,396.78
-23,854.60
Raw: -35,153.55
-21,912.23

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-25,928.00-26,040.51
(-) Net Debt58.4058.40
Equity Value-25,986.39-26,098.90
(/) Shares Out420.65420.65
Fair Value$-61.78$-62.04
(-) Safety Margin66.12%66.12%
Buy Price$-20.93$-21.02
Current Price$7.41$7.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-382.46%-383.68%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$7.41
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH49.59%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue56,401.3484,371.36126,212.02188,801.90282,430.77422,491.20632,009.08945,429.111,414,277.482,115,632.73
Constant Implied Growth49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%49.59%
Implied Free Cash Flow5.648.4412.6218.8828.2442.2563.2094.54141.43211.56
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF5.407.2410.1814.3120.1128.2739.7455.8678.52110.38

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$7.3410.22%$19.08159.94%
20182018-12-31$4.2611.96%$51.091,099.40%
20172017-12-31$4.4913.70%$-34.65-871.62%
20162016-12-31$3.0616.90%$18.72511.85%
20152015-12-31$2.2519.57%$16.35626.56%
20142014-12-31$1.3622.13%$68.284,920.69%
20132013-12-31$1.3818.09%$-23.01-1,767.72%
20122012-12-31$1.1413.74%$-18.36-1,710.31%
20112011-12-31$1.5211.47%$-10.43-785.94%
20102010-12-31$1.8612.80%$-27.12-1,558.11%
20092009-12-31$1.4617.27%$-6.24-527.38%
20082008-12-31$1.0619.03%$-26.96-2,643.60%
20072007-12-31$1.9813.78%$-17.21-969.34%
20062006-12-31$2.111.35%$-5.41-356.39%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-43.78
Median
$-36.12
10th Percentile
$-61.04
90th Percentile
$-25.44

Fair Value Distribution

$-2,968.06 - $-2,820.59
1
$-2,820.59 - $-2,673.12
0
$-2,673.12 - $-2,525.66
0
$-2,525.66 - $-2,378.19
0
$-2,378.19 - $-2,230.73
0
$-2,230.73 - $-2,083.26
0
$-2,083.26 - $-1,935.79
0
$-1,935.79 - $-1,788.33
0
$-1,788.33 - $-1,640.86
0
$-1,640.86 - $-1,493.40
0
$-1,493.40 - $-1,345.93
0
$-1,345.93 - $-1,198.46
0
$-1,198.46 - $-1,051.00
0
$-1,051.00 - $-903.53
0
$-903.53 - $-756.07
0
$-756.07 - $-608.60
0
$-608.60 - $-461.13
0
$-461.13 - $-313.67
0
$-313.67 - $-166.20
2
$-166.20 - $-18.74
997