Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.31 |
| 5Y Range | 0.88 – 1.49 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.29% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.48% |
| 10Y Range | 1.04 – 1.74 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.29% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.60% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6355 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5298 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7176 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0743 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6751 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1143 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0688 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5434 |
| Safety Score | 0.1826 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.32% | 11.40% | 10.47% | 9.55% | 8.62% | 7.70% | 6.77% | 5.85% | 4.92% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,638.46 | 2,939.20 | 3,247.04 | 3,557.10 | 3,863.86 | 4,161.35 | 4,443.26 | 4,703.17 | 4,934.80 | 5,132.19 |
| EBITDA | 177.06 | 197.24 | 217.90 | 238.71 | 259.30 | 279.26 | 298.18 | 315.62 | 331.17 | 344.41 |
| D&A | -78.51 | -87.46 | -96.62 | -105.84 | -114.97 | -123.82 | -132.21 | -139.95 | -146.84 | -152.71 |
| EBIT | 98.55 | 109.79 | 121.29 | 132.87 | 144.33 | 155.44 | 165.97 | 175.68 | 184.33 | 191.70 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -11.81 | -13.16 | -14.54 | -15.93 | -17.30 | -18.63 | -19.89 | -21.06 | -22.09 | -22.98 |
| NOPAT | 86.74 | 96.63 | 106.75 | 116.94 | 127.03 | 136.81 | 146.07 | 154.62 | 162.23 | 168.72 |
| Capital Expenditures | -77.85 | -86.72 | -95.80 | -104.95 | -114.00 | -122.78 | -131.10 | -138.77 | -145.60 | -151.42 |
| NWC Investment | -9.29 | -9.65 | -9.88 | -9.95 | -9.85 | -9.55 | -9.05 | -8.34 | -7.43 | -6.34 |
| (+) D&A | 78.51 | 87.46 | 96.62 | 105.84 | 114.97 | 123.82 | 132.21 | 139.95 | 146.84 | 152.71 |
| Free Cash Flow | 78.11 | 87.71 | 97.68 | 107.88 | 118.15 | 128.30 | 138.14 | 147.46 | 156.04 | 163.68 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 | 2,029,872,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.55 | 84.83 | 87.86 | 90.24 | 91.90 | 92.81 | 92.93 | 92.25 | 90.79 | 88.56 | Raw: 2,294.80 1,721.42 |
Raw: 3,179.04 1,658.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,153.80 | 2,548.50 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.93 | -75.93 |
| Equity Value | 2,229.73 | 2,624.43 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,029.87 | 2,029.87 |
| Fair Value | $1.10 | $1.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.29% | 83.29% |
| Buy Price | $0.18 | $0.22 |
| Current Price | $1.31 | $1.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.99% | -83.51% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.47 | 84.47 | 86.68 | 88.21 | 89.01 | 89.06 | 88.35 | 86.90 | 84.73 | 81.89 | Raw: 1,777.26 1,285.20 |
Raw: 2,462.07 1,182.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,711.04 | 2,039.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.93 | -75.93 |
| Equity Value | 1,786.97 | 2,115.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,029.87 | 2,029.87 |
| Fair Value | $0.88 | $1.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.29% | 83.29% |
| Buy Price | $0.15 | $0.17 |
| Current Price | $1.31 | $1.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.77% | -86.71% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.62 | 85.20 | 89.06 | 92.34 | 94.92 | 96.76 | 97.80 | 97.99 | 97.34 | 95.84 | Raw: 3,224.71 2,510.16 |
Raw: 4,467.26 2,534.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,949.30 | 3,459.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.93 | -75.93 |
| Equity Value | 3,025.23 | 3,535.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,029.87 | 2,029.87 |
| Fair Value | $1.49 | $1.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.29% | 83.29% |
| Buy Price | $0.25 | $0.29 |
| Current Price | $1.31 | $1.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.99% | -77.78% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,821.41 | 14,858.00 | 28,225.12 | 53,618.07 | 101,856.02 | 193,491.62 | 367,567.94 | 698,253.44 | 1,326,442.88 | 2,519,788.10 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.78 | 1.49 | 2.82 | 5.36 | 10.19 | 19.35 | 36.76 | 69.83 | 132.64 | 251.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.74 | 1.24 | 2.20 | 3.88 | 6.85 | 12.11 | 21.39 | 37.78 | 66.74 | 117.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $0.59 | 17.31% | $1.54 | 160.44% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $0.63 | 17.82% | $-2.94 | -566.25% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.37 | 7.65% | $-0.07 | -105.28% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.56 | 0.50% | $-1.13 | -172.38% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.00 | 1.03% | $-8.76 | -392.03% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.87 | 1.87% | $-4.64 | -348.39% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.39 | 0.13% | $2.80 | 101.08% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $0.70 | -3.00% | $1.60 | 128.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $0.65 | 0.41% | $0.68 | 5.02% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $0.97 | 8.35% | $-1.65 | -270.27% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.18 | 18.91% | $3.72 | 214.99% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.50 | 26.25% | $-3.48 | -795.11% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.58 | -9.40% | $-3.57 | -199.79% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $0.90 | -47.15% | $0.87 | -2.88% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $1.29 | -68.15% | $0.18 | -85.97% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.00 | -61.43% | $-0.22 | -110.79% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.92 | -28.39% | $-0.43 | -114.58% |
| $0.81 - $1.06 | 118 |
| $1.06 - $1.32 | 424 |
| $1.32 - $1.57 | 273 |
| $1.57 - $1.83 | 102 |
| $1.83 - $2.08 | 54 |
| $2.08 - $2.34 | 16 |
| $2.34 - $2.60 | 4 |
| $2.60 - $2.85 | 2 |
| $2.85 - $3.11 | 4 |
| $3.11 - $3.36 | 2 |
| $3.36 - $3.62 | 0 |
| $3.62 - $3.87 | 0 |
| $3.87 - $4.13 | 0 |
| $4.13 - $4.38 | 0 |
| $4.38 - $4.64 | 0 |
| $4.64 - $4.90 | 0 |
| $4.90 - $5.15 | 0 |
| $5.15 - $5.41 | 0 |
| $5.41 - $5.66 | 0 |
| $5.66 - $5.92 | 1 |