Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.03 |
| 5Y Range | 1.86 – 4.81 |
| 5Y Selected | 3.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.08% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.46% |
| 10Y Range | 2.60 – 6.43 |
| 10Y Selected | 4.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.08% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0082 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8148 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8634 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1510 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8589 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1467 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7922 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1981 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.90% | 4.80% | 4.70% | 4.60% | 4.50% | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 48,143.62 | 50,454.04 | 52,824.95 | 55,254.51 | 57,740.63 | 60,280.93 | 62,872.79 | 65,513.30 | 68,199.26 | 70,927.23 |
| EBITDA | 2,884.40 | 3,022.83 | 3,164.88 | 3,310.44 | 3,459.39 | 3,611.58 | 3,766.87 | 3,925.07 | 4,085.99 | 4,249.43 |
| D&A | -100.56 | -105.38 | -110.33 | -115.41 | -120.60 | -125.91 | -131.32 | -136.84 | -142.45 | -148.14 |
| EBIT | 2,783.85 | 2,917.45 | 3,054.54 | 3,195.03 | 3,338.79 | 3,485.68 | 3,635.55 | 3,788.23 | 3,943.54 | 4,101.29 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,458.00 | -1,527.97 | -1,599.77 | -1,673.35 | -1,748.64 | -1,825.57 | -1,904.07 | -1,984.03 | -2,065.38 | -2,147.99 |
| NOPAT | 1,325.85 | 1,389.47 | 1,454.77 | 1,521.68 | 1,590.14 | 1,660.10 | 1,731.48 | 1,804.20 | 1,878.17 | 1,953.29 |
| Capital Expenditures | -63.18 | -66.21 | -69.32 | -72.51 | -75.77 | -79.11 | -82.51 | -85.97 | -89.50 | -93.08 |
| NWC Investment | -1,053.15 | -1,082.22 | -1,110.55 | -1,138.02 | -1,164.51 | -1,189.90 | -1,214.04 | -1,236.83 | -1,258.12 | -1,277.80 |
| (+) D&A | 100.56 | 105.38 | 110.33 | 115.41 | 120.60 | 125.91 | 131.32 | 136.84 | 142.45 | 148.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 310.07 | 346.43 | 385.23 | 426.55 | 470.46 | 517.00 | 566.25 | 618.23 | 672.99 | 730.56 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 | 3,559,375,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 308.22 | 337.18 | 353.08 | 367.93 | 382.13 | 395.44 | 407.84 | 419.31 | 429.83 | 439.38 | Raw: 12,722.33 10,027.80 |
Raw: 19,756.17 11,530.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,776.34 | 15,370.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,987.04 | 1,987.04 |
| Equity Value | 9,789.29 | 13,383.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,559.38 | 3,559.38 |
| Fair Value | $2.75 | $3.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.08% | 84.08% |
| Buy Price | $0.44 | $0.60 |
| Current Price | $2.03 | $2.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.43% | -70.51% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 307.93 | 335.76 | 348.31 | 359.54 | 369.93 | 379.25 | 387.50 | 394.68 | 400.80 | 405.88 | Raw: 9,068.26 6,887.22 |
Raw: 14,081.86 7,556.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,608.70 | 11,246.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,987.04 | 1,987.04 |
| Equity Value | 6,621.66 | 9,259.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,559.38 | 3,559.38 |
| Fair Value | $1.86 | $2.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.08% | 84.08% |
| Buy Price | $0.30 | $0.41 |
| Current Price | $2.03 | $2.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.41% | -79.60% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 308.51 | 338.62 | 357.96 | 376.59 | 394.84 | 412.49 | 429.47 | 445.74 | 461.26 | 475.99 | Raw: 21,169.89 17,323.25 |
Raw: 32,874.15 20,883.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,099.77 | 24,885.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,987.04 | 1,987.04 |
| Equity Value | 17,112.73 | 22,897.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,559.38 | 3,559.38 |
| Fair Value | $4.81 | $6.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.08% | 84.08% |
| Buy Price | $0.77 | $1.02 |
| Current Price | $2.03 | $2.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.30% | -49.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 135,869.48 | 205,860.83 | 311,907.31 | 472,582.22 | 716,026.67 | 1,084,878.30 | 1,643,738.95 | 2,490,489.23 | 3,773,431.69 | 5,717,264.91 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 13.59 | 20.59 | 31.19 | 47.26 | 71.60 | 108.49 | 164.37 | 249.05 | 377.34 | 571.73 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 13.03 | 17.76 | 25.33 | 36.15 | 51.57 | 73.58 | 104.98 | 149.79 | 213.71 | 304.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $4.81 | -1.86% | $-33.57 | -797.93% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.26 | 11.55% | $19.17 | 748.35% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.59 | 23.77% | $40.20 | 1,019.79% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.20 | 22.51% | $129.96 | 5,807.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.67 | 17.22% | $48.45 | 1,714.72% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.07 | 9.03% | $-18.56 | -704.64% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.62 | 14.52% | $-50.52 | -999.01% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $7.29 | 15.27% | $10.91 | 49.60% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.57 | 17.83% | $-12.63 | -453.82% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.98 | 28.63% | $18.05 | 811.38% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.57 | 28.20% | $4.96 | 92.81% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.92 | 27.65% | $-7.41 | -910.01% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.44 | 14.29% | $-2.06 | -159.79% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $1.24 | -10.61% | $-2.08 | -267.55% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $0.71 | -1.76% | $-2.29 | -420.09% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $0.73 | 7.29% | $-2.76 | -479.82% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $0.85 | -1.42% | $0.61 | -28.80% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.48 | -1.03% | $0.73 | 52.22% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $0.37 | -6.04% | $1.06 | 188.18% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $0.54 | -5.72% | $-2.98 | -654.03% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $0.45 | -1.61% | $-1.65 | -468.80% |
| $1.74 - $2.32 | 41 |
| $2.32 - $2.90 | 155 |
| $2.90 - $3.48 | 194 |
| $3.48 - $4.07 | 179 |
| $4.07 - $4.65 | 136 |
| $4.65 - $5.23 | 85 |
| $5.23 - $5.81 | 68 |
| $5.81 - $6.39 | 39 |
| $6.39 - $6.97 | 27 |
| $6.97 - $7.56 | 19 |
| $7.56 - $8.14 | 18 |
| $8.14 - $8.72 | 11 |
| $8.72 - $9.30 | 3 |
| $9.30 - $9.88 | 9 |
| $9.88 - $10.46 | 6 |
| $10.46 - $11.04 | 2 |
| $11.04 - $11.63 | 2 |
| $11.63 - $12.21 | 0 |
| $12.21 - $12.79 | 3 |
| $12.79 - $13.37 | 3 |