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MTR Corporation Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$30.86
5Y Range17.86 – 36.11
5Y Selected26.98
(-) Safety Margin85.69%
5Y Buy Price$4.79
Upside (to Buy Price)-84.49%
10Y Range19.57 – 38.37
10Y Selected28.97
(-) Safety Margin85.69%
10Y Buy Price$5.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.34%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9385
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2555
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6760
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0349
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7599
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0020
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0790
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1480
Safety Score0.1774

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.38%3.45%3.52%3.59%3.65%3.72%3.79%3.86%3.93%4.00%
Revenue62,038.5564,177.4366,434.3768,816.5471,331.6573,987.9276,794.1979,759.9282,895.2586,211.06
EBITDA23,051.3623,846.0924,684.6925,569.8326,504.3527,491.3328,534.0429,636.0030,800.9832,033.02
D&A-6,493.82-6,717.71-6,953.95-7,203.30-7,466.56-7,744.61-8,038.35-8,348.79-8,676.97-9,024.05
EBIT16,557.5417,128.3917,730.7518,366.5319,037.7819,746.7220,495.6921,287.2222,124.0123,008.97
Pro forma Taxes-2,823.58-2,920.93-3,023.65-3,132.07-3,246.54-3,367.44-3,495.16-3,630.14-3,772.84-3,923.76
NOPAT13,733.9614,207.4614,707.0915,234.4515,791.2416,379.2817,000.5317,657.0718,351.1619,085.21
Capital Expenditures-14,923.40-15,437.91-15,980.81-16,553.85-17,158.86-17,797.82-18,472.87-19,186.28-19,940.48-20,738.10
NWC Investment485.24511.88540.14570.11601.92635.71671.60709.77750.35793.55
(+) D&A6,493.826,717.716,953.957,203.307,466.567,744.618,038.358,348.798,676.979,024.05
Free Cash Flow5,789.625,999.146,220.366,454.016,700.876,961.777,237.617,529.347,838.018,164.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding6,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.256,218,000,776.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.40%Terminal Growth: 2.13%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF5,753.825,830.425,681.925,540.865,406.875,279.625,158.775,044.014,935.064,831.65
Raw: 160,271.41
125,373.29
Raw: 195,283.45
112,035.06

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value153,587.18165,498.06
(-) Net Debt5,741.765,741.76
Equity Value147,845.42159,756.30
(/) Shares Out6,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$23.78$25.69
(-) Safety Margin85.69%85.69%
Buy Price$3.40$3.68
Current Price$30.86$30.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-88.97%-88.09%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.40%Terminal Growth: 1.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF5,748.445,805.395,604.845,414.805,234.675,063.874,901.894,748.224,602.404,464.00
Raw: 118,025.09
88,968.21
Raw: 143,808.22
75,870.00

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value116,776.35127,458.52
(-) Net Debt5,741.765,741.76
Equity Value111,034.59121,716.76
(/) Shares Out6,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$17.86$19.57
(-) Safety Margin85.69%85.69%
Buy Price$2.56$2.80
Current Price$30.86$30.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.72%-90.92%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.40%Terminal Growth: 2.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF5,759.265,855.815,760.795,671.085,586.455,506.735,431.735,361.295,295.255,233.48
Raw: 248,273.33
201,613.41
Raw: 302,509.80
188,874.75

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value230,246.79244,336.61
(-) Net Debt5,741.765,741.76
Equity Value224,505.04238,594.85
(/) Shares Out6,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$36.11$38.37
(-) Safety Margin85.69%85.69%
Buy Price$5.17$5.49
Current Price$30.86$30.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.26%-82.21%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$30.86
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH102.78%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue236,808.20480,207.25973,779.641,974,661.544,004,281.928,120,011.1416,466,018.6733,390,320.1067,709,960.62137,304,426.99
Constant Implied Growth102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%
Implied Free Cash Flow23.6848.0297.38197.47400.43812.001,646.603,339.036,771.0013,730.44
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF22.6741.2378.57149.75285.41543.971,036.751,975.953,765.957,177.53

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$46.058.57%$21.65-52.98%
20182018-12-31$41.201.82%$5.03-87.79%
20172017-12-31$45.80-4.35%$18.01-60.67%
20162016-12-31$37.70-6.53%$3.44-90.89%
20152015-12-31$38.40-2.64%$-18.58-148.39%
20142014-12-31$31.805.82%$14.10-55.65%
20132013-12-31$29.357.73%$2.44-91.70%
20122012-12-31$30.507.73%$5.17-83.05%
20112011-12-31$25.155.04%$1.93-92.32%
20102010-12-31$28.305.34%$-6.09-121.51%
20092009-12-31$26.807.39%$7.21-73.11%
20082008-12-31$17.9615.93%$10.84-39.63%
20072007-12-31$28.7019.20%$20.98-26.92%
20062006-12-31$20.4527.02%$20.17-1.35%
20052005-12-31$15.2527.14%$14.32-6.11%
20042004-12-31$12.4519.44%$10.18-18.23%
20032003-12-31$10.2515.13%$6.35-38.05%
20022002-12-31$8.256.58%$16.88104.66%
20012001-12-31$10.204.32%$14.9646.64%
20002000-12-31$13.702.58%$12.45-9.13%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$28.42
Median
$26.19
10th Percentile
$19.77
90th Percentile
$39.43

Fair Value Distribution

$15.33 - $18.75
48
$18.75 - $22.18
173
$22.18 - $25.60
234
$25.60 - $29.02
207
$29.02 - $32.44
108
$32.44 - $35.87
85
$35.87 - $39.29
43
$39.29 - $42.71
33
$42.71 - $46.14
23
$46.14 - $49.56
8
$49.56 - $52.98
14
$52.98 - $56.40
7
$56.40 - $59.83
6
$59.83 - $63.25
2
$63.25 - $66.67
1
$66.67 - $70.09
3
$70.09 - $73.52
2
$73.52 - $76.94
1
$76.94 - $80.36
0
$80.36 - $83.78
2