Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.64 |
| 5Y Range | 2.01 – 3.91 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.01% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.05% |
| 10Y Range | 2.33 – 4.48 |
| 10Y Selected | 3.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.01% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.05% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0205 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6799 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4831 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4450 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5419 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4301 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0025 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0097 |
| Safety Score | 0.2212 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.42% | 5.26% | 5.11% | 4.95% | 4.79% | 4.63% | 4.47% | 4.32% | 4.16% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,735.41 | 2,879.39 | 3,026.40 | 3,176.14 | 3,328.26 | 3,482.42 | 3,638.22 | 3,795.24 | 3,953.05 | 4,111.17 |
| EBITDA | 193.63 | 203.82 | 214.23 | 224.83 | 235.59 | 246.51 | 257.53 | 268.65 | 279.82 | 291.01 |
| D&A | -79.71 | -83.91 | -88.19 | -92.56 | -96.99 | -101.48 | -106.02 | -110.60 | -115.20 | -119.80 |
| EBIT | 113.92 | 119.91 | 126.03 | 132.27 | 138.61 | 145.03 | 151.51 | 158.05 | 164.62 | 171.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -31.15 | -32.79 | -34.47 | -36.17 | -37.91 | -39.66 | -41.44 | -43.23 | -45.02 | -46.82 |
| NOPAT | 82.76 | 87.12 | 91.57 | 96.10 | 100.70 | 105.36 | 110.08 | 114.83 | 119.60 | 124.39 |
| Capital Expenditures | -71.22 | -74.96 | -78.79 | -82.69 | -86.65 | -90.66 | -94.72 | -98.81 | -102.92 | -107.03 |
| NWC Investment | -38.71 | -39.62 | -40.46 | -41.21 | -41.87 | -42.42 | -42.88 | -43.21 | -43.43 | -43.51 |
| (+) D&A | 79.71 | 83.91 | 88.19 | 92.56 | 96.99 | 101.48 | 106.02 | 110.60 | 115.20 | 119.80 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52.54 | 56.44 | 60.51 | 64.75 | 69.17 | 73.76 | 78.50 | 83.40 | 88.45 | 93.64 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 | 630,531,700.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.21 | 53.99 | 54.33 | 54.57 | 54.72 | 54.76 | 54.67 | 54.52 | 54.27 | 53.92 | Raw: 1,684.99 1,291.29 |
Raw: 2,281.06 1,272.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,561.11 | 1,814.59 |
| (-) Net Debt | -92.48 | -92.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,653.59 | 1,907.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 630.53 | 630.53 |
| Fair Value | $2.62 | $3.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.01% | 81.01% |
| Buy Price | $0.50 | $0.57 |
| Current Price | $1.64 | $1.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.63% | -64.98% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.16 | 53.64 | 53.47 | 53.21 | 52.86 | 52.41 | 51.83 | 51.21 | 50.50 | 49.71 | Raw: 1,235.60 910.46 |
Raw: 1,672.69 856.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,175.81 | 1,377.27 |
| (-) Net Debt | -92.48 | -92.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,268.29 | 1,469.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 630.53 | 630.53 |
| Fair Value | $2.01 | $2.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.01% | 81.01% |
| Buy Price | $0.38 | $0.44 |
| Current Price | $1.64 | $1.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.71% | -73.01% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.26 | 54.35 | 55.21 | 55.98 | 56.66 | 57.24 | 57.70 | 58.08 | 58.36 | 58.54 | Raw: 2,633.49 2,099.72 |
Raw: 3,565.10 2,169.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,374.17 | 2,733.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | -92.48 | -92.48 |
| Equity Value | 2,466.65 | 2,826.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 630.53 | 630.53 |
| Fair Value | $3.91 | $4.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.01% | 81.01% |
| Buy Price | $0.74 | $0.85 |
| Current Price | $1.64 | $1.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.70% | -48.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,842.05 | 12,776.36 | 20,815.39 | 33,912.67 | 55,250.91 | 90,015.42 | 146,654.15 | 238,930.62 | 389,268.49 | 634,200.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% | 62.92% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.78 | 1.28 | 2.08 | 3.39 | 5.53 | 9.00 | 14.67 | 23.89 | 38.93 | 63.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.76 | 1.15 | 1.75 | 2.68 | 4.10 | 6.27 | 9.59 | 14.66 | 22.42 | 34.28 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $1.77 | -1.17% | $5.24 | 196.11% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $2.82 | 5.47% | $2.60 | -7.82% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $2.28 | 12.82% | $-8.87 | -489.03% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $2.10 | 13.51% | $5.46 | 159.77% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $1.58 | 8.76% | $5.38 | 240.65% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $2.10 | 5.02% | $4.04 | 92.61% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $2.33 | 3.73% | $1.74 | -25.49% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $2.64 | -2.81% | $0.52 | -80.33% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $2.55 | -8.18% | $-0.31 | -112.01% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $4.34 | -9.12% | $-0.81 | -118.56% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $2.90 | -8.73% | $7.35 | 153.53% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $1.32 | -2.62% | $3.88 | 193.78% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $3.74 | 2.39% | $3.50 | -6.54% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $5.10 | -0.63% | $5.41 | 6.17% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $4.80 | -0.43% | $7.74 | 61.15% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $4.40 | -4.96% | $-1.29 | -129.43% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $4.75 | -1.82% | $2.87 | -39.60% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $2.20 | 7.85% | $9.81 | 345.95% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $1.35 | 9.33% | $0.40 | -70.69% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $1.30 | 13.12% | $-0.36 | -127.61% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $1.48 | 11.61% | $-0.50 | -133.55% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $1.98 | 9.26% | $1.58 | -20.33% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $1.98 | 12.57% | $5.84 | 194.74% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $1.98 | 8.35% | $6.92 | 249.72% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $1.98 | 3.98% | $7.24 | 265.82% |
| $1.77 - $2.27 | 75 |
| $2.27 - $2.78 | 264 |
| $2.78 - $3.29 | 283 |
| $3.29 - $3.80 | 166 |
| $3.80 - $4.31 | 89 |
| $4.31 - $4.82 | 52 |
| $4.82 - $5.32 | 27 |
| $5.32 - $5.83 | 16 |
| $5.83 - $6.34 | 7 |
| $6.34 - $6.85 | 6 |
| $6.85 - $7.36 | 2 |
| $7.36 - $7.87 | 2 |
| $7.87 - $8.37 | 2 |
| $8.37 - $8.88 | 1 |
| $8.88 - $9.39 | 2 |
| $9.39 - $9.90 | 2 |
| $9.90 - $10.41 | 1 |
| $10.41 - $10.92 | 1 |
| $10.92 - $11.43 | 0 |
| $11.43 - $11.93 | 1 |