Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.56 |
| 5Y Range | 1.66 – 2.93 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.71% |
| 10Y Range | 1.74 – 2.97 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.12% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0024 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1680 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9748 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2620 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7879 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0700 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8238 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1652 |
| Safety Score | 0.1717 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.40% | 0.09% | 0.58% | 1.07% | 1.56% | 2.04% | 2.53% | 3.02% | 3.51% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 260.03 | 260.27 | 261.77 | 264.57 | 268.68 | 274.18 | 281.12 | 289.62 | 299.79 | 311.78 |
| EBITDA | 29.03 | 29.06 | 29.22 | 29.54 | 30.00 | 30.61 | 31.39 | 32.33 | 33.47 | 34.81 |
| D&A | -13.39 | -13.41 | -13.48 | -13.63 | -13.84 | -14.12 | -14.48 | -14.92 | -15.44 | -16.06 |
| EBIT | 15.64 | 15.65 | 15.74 | 15.91 | 16.16 | 16.49 | 16.90 | 17.42 | 18.03 | 18.75 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1.60 | -1.60 | -1.61 | -1.62 | -1.65 | -1.68 | -1.73 | -1.78 | -1.84 | -1.91 |
| NOPAT | 14.04 | 14.05 | 14.13 | 14.29 | 14.51 | 14.80 | 15.18 | 15.64 | 16.19 | 16.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4.85 | -4.85 | -4.88 | -4.93 | -5.01 | -5.11 | -5.24 | -5.40 | -5.59 | -5.82 |
| NWC Investment | 0.03 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.09 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.23 | -0.28 | -0.33 | -0.39 |
| (+) D&A | 13.39 | 13.41 | 13.48 | 13.63 | 13.84 | 14.12 | 14.48 | 14.92 | 15.44 | 16.06 |
| Free Cash Flow | 22.62 | 22.60 | 22.69 | 22.89 | 23.20 | 23.63 | 24.19 | 24.88 | 25.70 | 26.69 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 | 244,356,738.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.47 | 21.92 | 20.60 | 19.46 | 18.46 | 17.61 | 16.87 | 16.24 | 15.71 | 15.27 | Raw: 499.57 384.63 |
Raw: 574.61 318.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 487.55 | 502.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.94 | -24.94 |
| Equity Value | 512.48 | 527.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 244.36 | 244.36 |
| Fair Value | $2.10 | $2.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $0.31 | $0.31 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.41% | -79.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.45 | 21.83 | 20.32 | 19.02 | 17.88 | 16.89 | 16.03 | 15.29 | 14.65 | 14.11 | Raw: 377.64 280.23 |
Raw: 434.37 221.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 381.72 | 399.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.94 | -24.94 |
| Equity Value | 406.66 | 424.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 244.36 | 244.36 |
| Fair Value | $1.66 | $1.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $0.24 | $0.25 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.46% | -83.77% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.49 | 22.02 | 20.89 | 19.91 | 19.07 | 18.36 | 17.76 | 17.26 | 16.85 | 16.53 | Raw: 734.35 586.86 |
Raw: 844.66 508.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 691.24 | 699.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.94 | -24.94 |
| Equity Value | 716.17 | 724.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 244.36 | 244.36 |
| Fair Value | $2.93 | $2.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $0.43 | $0.43 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.63% | -72.30% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 959.69 | 1,803.40 | 3,388.86 | 6,368.17 | 11,966.75 | 22,487.32 | 42,257.05 | 79,407.35 | 149,218.36 | 280,403.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% | 87.92% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 4.23 | 7.94 | 14.92 | 28.04 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 1.47 | 2.58 | 4.54 | 7.99 | 14.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3.12 | 0.37% | $2.93 | -6.22% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.88 | -1.00% | $3.80 | 32.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $2.85 | -1.56% | $3.92 | 37.65% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.68 | -0.60% | $2.83 | 5.77% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.96 | 0.00% | $3.35 | 13.08% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.59 | 4.90% | $3.22 | 24.46% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.93 | 6.94% | $4.83 | 150.45% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1.82 | 7.96% | $4.26 | 134.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.60 | 5.96% | $5.54 | 246.45% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.68 | -11.17% | $1.76 | 4.49% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.44 | -16.24% | $3.59 | 149.39% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.65 | -19.33% | $2.45 | 277.10% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1.00 | -10.85% | $1.99 | 98.91% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $0.78 | 2.69% | $1.81 | 132.09% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $0.80 | 10.63% | $7.26 | 806.89% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $1.03 | 19.78% | $-4.13 | -501.17% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $1.74 | 15.05% | $-9.56 | -649.21% |
| $1.25 - $1.56 | 20 |
| $1.56 - $1.87 | 177 |
| $1.87 - $2.18 | 321 |
| $2.18 - $2.48 | 217 |
| $2.48 - $2.79 | 127 |
| $2.79 - $3.10 | 58 |
| $3.10 - $3.41 | 34 |
| $3.41 - $3.72 | 18 |
| $3.72 - $4.02 | 7 |
| $4.02 - $4.33 | 7 |
| $4.33 - $4.64 | 7 |
| $4.64 - $4.95 | 3 |
| $4.95 - $5.25 | 2 |
| $5.25 - $5.56 | 1 |
| $5.56 - $5.87 | 0 |
| $5.87 - $6.18 | 0 |
| $6.18 - $6.49 | 0 |
| $6.49 - $6.79 | 0 |
| $6.79 - $7.10 | 0 |
| $7.10 - $7.41 | 1 |