Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Valuations
Miscellaneous
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

The Cross-Harbour (Holdings) Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$8.16
5Y Range39.41 – 75.68
5Y Selected57.54
(-) Safety Margin85.13%
5Y Buy Price$10.28
Upside (to Buy Price)25.95%
10Y Range44.10 – 82.65
10Y Selected63.37
(-) Safety Margin85.13%
10Y Buy Price$11.32
Upside (to Buy Price)38.71%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6297
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4025
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0000
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1893
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1405
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0033
FCF R2 (5Y)0.6593
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2154
Safety Score0.1786

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth8.77%8.24%7.71%7.18%6.65%6.12%5.59%5.06%4.53%4.00%
Revenue1,332.751,442.531,553.721,665.241,775.951,884.611,989.942,090.622,185.312,272.73
EBITDA751.18813.06875.72938.581,000.981,062.231,121.591,178.341,231.711,280.98
D&A-136.84-148.11-159.52-170.97-182.34-193.50-204.31-214.65-224.37-233.34
EBIT614.35664.95716.20767.61818.64868.73917.28963.691,007.341,047.64
Pro forma Taxes-47.53-51.44-55.41-59.39-63.34-67.21-70.97-74.56-77.93-81.05
NOPAT566.82613.51660.79708.22755.31801.52846.32889.14929.41966.59
Capital Expenditures-76.80-83.13-89.54-95.96-102.34-108.61-114.68-120.48-125.94-130.97
NWC Investment26.4927.0727.4227.5027.3026.8025.9824.8323.3521.56
(+) D&A136.84148.11159.52170.97182.34193.50204.31214.65224.37233.34
Free Cash Flow653.34705.56758.20810.73862.60913.21961.931,008.131,051.201,090.52
Diluted Shares Outstanding372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00372,688,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.61%Terminal Growth: 2.20%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF649.17685.08690.53692.58691.19686.35678.13666.62651.98634.42
Raw: 19,985.16
15,509.14
Raw: 25,265.48
14,235.32

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value18,917.6920,961.36
(-) Net Debt-230.79-230.79
Equity Value19,148.4821,192.15
(/) Shares Out372.69372.69
Fair Value$51.38$56.86
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$7.64$8.46
Current Price$8.16$8.16
Upside (to Buy Price)-6.37%3.62%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.61%Terminal Growth: 1.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.780.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF648.56682.14681.18676.86669.22658.36644.42627.60608.12586.24
Raw: 14,840.88
11,098.99
Raw: 18,762.02
9,722.77

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,456.9516,205.48
(-) Net Debt-230.79-230.79
Equity Value14,687.7416,436.27
(/) Shares Out372.69372.69
Fair Value$39.41$44.10
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$5.86$6.56
Current Price$8.16$8.16
Upside (to Buy Price)-28.18%-19.63%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.61%Terminal Growth: 2.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.870.830.780.740.700.670.63
PV UFCF649.78688.05700.10708.83714.10715.81713.93708.46699.47687.07
Raw: 30,430.57
24,513.06
Raw: 38,470.69
23,585.29

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value27,973.9230,570.89
(-) Net Debt-230.79-230.79
Equity Value28,204.7130,801.68
(/) Shares Out372.69372.69
Fair Value$75.68$82.65
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$11.25$12.29
Current Price$8.16$8.16
Upside (to Buy Price)37.91%50.61%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$8.16
WACC Used6.6%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH95.86%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue4,923.169,642.5918,886.1636,990.7772,450.80141,903.44277,934.66544,367.881,066,208.812,088,295.94
Constant Implied Growth95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%95.86%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.490.961.893.707.2514.1927.7954.44106.62208.83
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.550.51
Present Value of Implied FCF0.470.821.512.785.119.3817.2431.6758.18106.89

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$12.1211.78%$74.78517.02%
20182018-12-31$11.643.78%$1.90-83.68%
20172017-12-31$12.6820.77%$10.94-13.76%
20162016-12-31$11.202.72%$10.52-6.04%
20152015-12-31$10.3619.56%$8.59-17.10%
20142014-12-31$7.419.73%$7.957.34%
20132013-12-31$6.344.55%$6.15-2.93%
20122012-12-31$6.4523.15%$-3.81-158.99%
20112011-12-31$6.300.13%$2.99-52.49%
20102010-12-31$6.8312.16%$-4.03-159.02%
20092009-12-31$7.426.44%$3.19-57.04%
20082008-12-31$6.406.43%$1.92-70.07%
20072007-12-31$8.542.88%$4.43-48.11%
20062006-12-31$6.65-4.67%$2.57-61.29%
20052005-12-31$5.75-6.79%$2.06-64.25%
20042004-12-31$5.65-5.19%$2.69-52.44%
20032003-12-31$4.10-3.58%$2.86-30.16%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$61.75
Median
$57.78
10th Percentile
$44.47
90th Percentile
$83.56

Fair Value Distribution

$33.19 - $40.98
40
$40.98 - $48.78
194
$48.78 - $56.57
234
$56.57 - $64.37
199
$64.37 - $72.16
124
$72.16 - $79.95
78
$79.95 - $87.75
49
$87.75 - $95.54
32
$95.54 - $103.34
17
$103.34 - $111.13
12
$111.13 - $118.93
3
$118.93 - $126.72
6
$126.72 - $134.52
5
$134.52 - $142.31
3
$142.31 - $150.10
0
$150.10 - $157.90
2
$157.90 - $165.69
0
$165.69 - $173.49
0
$173.49 - $181.28
1
$181.28 - $189.08
1