Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $99.30 |
| 5Y Range | 127.19 – 270.41 |
| 5Y Selected | 198.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.13% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $39.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.42% |
| 10Y Range | 118.36 – 236.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 177.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.13% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $35.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.64% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2137 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4791 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9050 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5912 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8921 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0284 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6415 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0037 |
| Safety Score | 0.1977 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -2.15% | -1.47% | -0.78% | -0.10% | 0.58% | 1.27% | 1.95% | 2.63% | 3.32% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 78,007.12 | 76,863.13 | 76,261.13 | 76,184.95 | 76,629.42 | 77,600.12 | 79,113.36 | 81,196.71 | 83,889.75 | 87,245.33 |
| EBITDA | 30,584.78 | 30,136.25 | 29,900.22 | 29,870.35 | 30,044.62 | 30,425.20 | 31,018.51 | 31,835.34 | 32,891.22 | 34,206.87 |
| D&A | -3,042.93 | -2,998.30 | -2,974.82 | -2,971.85 | -2,989.18 | -3,027.05 | -3,086.08 | -3,167.35 | -3,272.40 | -3,403.29 |
| EBIT | 27,541.86 | 27,137.95 | 26,925.40 | 26,898.50 | 27,055.43 | 27,398.15 | 27,932.43 | 28,668.00 | 29,618.82 | 30,803.58 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -4,666.64 | -4,598.20 | -4,562.18 | -4,557.63 | -4,584.22 | -4,642.29 | -4,732.81 | -4,857.45 | -5,018.55 | -5,219.29 |
| NOPAT | 22,875.22 | 22,539.75 | 22,363.21 | 22,340.87 | 22,471.22 | 22,755.87 | 23,199.62 | 23,810.55 | 24,600.27 | 25,584.28 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,932.18 | -3,874.51 | -3,844.16 | -3,840.32 | -3,862.73 | -3,911.66 | -3,987.94 | -4,092.96 | -4,228.71 | -4,397.86 |
| NWC Investment | 2,054.54 | 1,371.39 | 721.66 | 91.32 | -532.83 | -1,163.64 | -1,814.03 | -2,497.45 | -3,228.33 | -4,022.57 |
| (+) D&A | 3,042.93 | 2,998.30 | 2,974.82 | 2,971.85 | 2,989.18 | 3,027.05 | 3,086.08 | 3,167.35 | 3,272.40 | 3,403.29 |
| Free Cash Flow | 24,040.51 | 23,034.92 | 22,215.53 | 21,563.72 | 21,064.84 | 20,707.62 | 20,483.73 | 20,387.49 | 20,415.63 | 20,567.15 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 | 2,922,781,250.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23,896.46 | 21,756.58 | 19,758.74 | 18,049.45 | 16,603.42 | 15,369.80 | 14,316.80 | 13,418.36 | 12,653.11 | 12,003.48 | Raw: 544,575.38 416,530.30 |
Raw: 531,708.72 301,131.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 516,594.95 | 468,957.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,850.10 | 14,850.10 |
| Equity Value | 501,744.85 | 454,107.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,922.78 | 2,922.78 |
| Fair Value | $171.67 | $155.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.13% | 84.13% |
| Buy Price | $27.24 | $24.66 |
| Current Price | $99.30 | $99.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.56% | -75.17% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23,874.07 | 21,563.72 | 19,400.90 | 17,555.59 | 15,998.46 | 14,671.64 | 13,538.97 | 12,570.97 | 11,743.46 | 11,036.61 | Raw: 392,891.93 288,208.86 |
Raw: 383,609.08 198,822.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 386,601.61 | 360,776.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,850.10 | 14,850.10 |
| Equity Value | 371,751.51 | 345,926.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,922.78 | 2,922.78 |
| Fair Value | $127.19 | $118.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.13% | 84.13% |
| Buy Price | $20.19 | $18.78 |
| Current Price | $99.30 | $99.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.67% | -81.08% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23,919.08 | 21,953.01 | 20,126.66 | 18,562.08 | 17,237.29 | 16,108.27 | 15,147.31 | 14,331.71 | 13,642.84 | 13,065.43 | Raw: 881,634.17 703,401.27 |
Raw: 860,803.84 533,160.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 805,199.40 | 707,254.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,850.10 | 14,850.10 |
| Equity Value | 790,349.30 | 692,403.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,922.78 | 2,922.78 |
| Fair Value | $270.41 | $236.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.13% | 84.13% |
| Buy Price | $42.91 | $37.60 |
| Current Price | $99.30 | $99.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.78% | -62.14% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 312,205.08 | 637,101.11 | 1,300,100.00 | 2,653,048.30 | 5,413,941.45 | 11,047,956.45 | 22,545,005.86 | 46,006,452.99 | 93,883,041.34 | 191,582,373.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% | 104.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 31.22 | 63.71 | 130.01 | 265.30 | 541.39 | 1,104.80 | 2,254.50 | 4,600.65 | 9,388.30 | 19,158.24 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 30.39 | 56.66 | 108.82 | 209.11 | 401.84 | 772.18 | 1,483.84 | 2,851.37 | 5,479.24 | 10,529.01 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $98.95 | -2.18% | $180.59 | 82.50% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $132.50 | -4.90% | $22.96 | -82.67% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $118.40 | -4.33% | $-31.13 | -126.29% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $114.70 | -1.95% | $141.91 | 23.72% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $93.05 | 1.45% | $51.73 | -44.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $125.60 | -0.97% | $36.47 | -70.96% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $106.30 | 3.58% | $-66.58 | -162.63% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $99.95 | 2.43% | $58.19 | -41.78% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $91.15 | 6.88% | $23.93 | -73.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $113.30 | 5.14% | $-75.92 | -167.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $107.40 | 0.11% | $15.42 | -85.64% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $96.80 | 13.57% | $16.58 | -82.87% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $105.80 | 15.58% | $-74.42 | -170.34% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $94.20 | 26.16% | $-31.84 | -133.80% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $79.20 | 16.38% | $-103.32 | -230.45% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $76.75 | 4.68% | $-16.94 | -122.08% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $64.00 | 5.74% | $23.88 | -62.69% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $39.30 | 3.90% | $75.06 | 90.99% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $59.25 | 6.59% | $28.06 | -52.65% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $70.25 | -0.38% | $19.44 | -72.33% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $56.00 | 2.86% | $-22.50 | -140.18% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $84.00 | -1.07% | $101.49 | 20.82% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $84.00 | -0.43% | $56.59 | -32.63% |
| $81.33 - $108.91 | 36 |
| $108.91 - $136.49 | 254 |
| $136.49 - $164.08 | 278 |
| $164.08 - $191.66 | 174 |
| $191.66 - $219.24 | 110 |
| $219.24 - $246.82 | 62 |
| $246.82 - $274.40 | 34 |
| $274.40 - $301.99 | 18 |
| $301.99 - $329.57 | 14 |
| $329.57 - $357.15 | 7 |
| $357.15 - $384.73 | 4 |
| $384.73 - $412.31 | 3 |
| $412.31 - $439.89 | 1 |
| $439.89 - $467.48 | 4 |
| $467.48 - $495.06 | 0 |
| $495.06 - $522.64 | 0 |
| $522.64 - $550.22 | 0 |
| $550.22 - $577.80 | 0 |
| $577.80 - $605.39 | 0 |
| $605.39 - $632.97 | 1 |