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Henderson Land Development Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$29.36
5Y Range-54.59 – -29.51
5Y Selected-42.05
(-) Safety Margin85.04%
5Y Buy Price$-7.78
Upside (to Buy Price)-126.50%
10Y Range-59.89 – -32.85
10Y Selected-46.37
(-) Safety Margin85.04%
10Y Buy Price$-8.58
Upside (to Buy Price)-129.22%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2412
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0528
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5628
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6425
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1194
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1076
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2371
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0450
Safety Score0.1850

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth1.38%1.67%1.96%2.25%2.54%2.83%3.13%3.42%3.71%4.00%
Revenue25,604.1826,031.7326,542.2427,140.0727,830.4328,619.4029,514.1030,522.7331,654.7332,920.92
EBITDA5,099.085,184.225,285.895,404.955,542.445,699.565,877.746,078.616,304.056,556.21
D&A-335.71-341.32-348.01-355.85-364.90-375.25-386.98-400.21-415.05-431.65
EBIT4,763.364,842.904,937.885,049.105,177.535,324.315,490.765,678.405,889.006,124.56
Pro forma Taxes-434.34-441.59-450.25-460.39-472.10-485.49-500.67-517.78-536.98-558.46
NOPAT4,329.024,401.314,487.634,588.714,705.434,838.824,990.095,160.635,352.025,566.10
Capital Expenditures-10,521.03-10,696.71-10,906.49-11,152.14-11,435.82-11,760.01-12,127.65-12,542.11-13,007.27-13,527.56
NWC Investment-499.02-612.78-731.69-856.84-989.43-1,130.78-1,282.31-1,445.61-1,622.43-1,814.75
(+) D&A335.71341.32348.01355.85364.90375.25386.98400.21415.05431.65
Free Cash Flow-6,355.30-6,566.86-6,802.53-7,064.42-7,354.92-7,676.72-8,032.89-8,426.89-8,862.63-9,344.55
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.004,841,000,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.35%Terminal Growth: 2.03%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-6,316.31-6,383.54-6,217.89-6,071.81-5,944.12-5,833.84-5,740.10-5,662.18-5,599.48-5,551.52
Raw: -173,619.72
-136,064.05
Raw: -220,586.82
-127,077.23

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-166,997.71-186,398.01
(-) Net Debt15,504.1615,504.16
Equity Value-182,501.87-201,902.17
(/) Shares Out4,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$-37.70$-41.71
(-) Safety Margin85.04%85.04%
Buy Price$-5.64$-6.24
Current Price$29.36$29.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-119.21%-121.25%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.35%Terminal Growth: 1.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-6,310.40-6,356.12-6,133.50-5,933.61-5,754.72-5,595.34-5,454.15-5,329.99-5,221.86-5,128.92
Raw: -128,256.61
-96,856.38
Raw: -162,952.22
-86,323.59

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-127,344.73-143,542.19
(-) Net Debt15,504.1615,504.16
Equity Value-142,848.88-159,046.35
(/) Shares Out4,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$-29.51$-32.85
(-) Safety Margin85.04%85.04%
Buy Price$-4.41$-4.91
Current Price$29.36$29.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-115.04%-116.74%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.35%Terminal Growth: 2.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF-6,322.28-6,411.34-6,304.25-6,214.57-6,141.64-6,084.91-6,043.96-6,018.51-6,008.36-6,013.45
Raw: -267,206.12
-217,389.55
Raw: -339,489.95
-212,852.17

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-248,783.63-274,415.45
(-) Net Debt15,504.1615,504.16
Equity Value-264,287.79-289,919.60
(/) Shares Out4,841.004,841.00
Fair Value$-54.59$-59.89
(-) Safety Margin85.04%85.04%
Buy Price$-8.17$-8.96
Current Price$29.36$29.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-127.82%-130.52%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$29.36
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH114.83%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue111,239.77238,978.12513,400.381,102,945.972,369,475.845,090,381.5010,935,745.1223,493,429.9850,471,298.13108,428,268.53
Constant Implied Growth114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%114.83%
Implied Free Cash Flow11.1223.9051.34110.29236.95509.041,093.572,349.345,047.1310,842.83
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF10.6520.5441.4983.82169.32342.03690.931,395.732,819.475,695.53

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$38.251.62%$-6.91-118.08%
20182018-12-31$35.452.63%$-1.77-104.98%
20172017-12-31$43.142.72%$-107.26-348.63%
20162016-12-31$30.99-1.86%$5.60-81.93%
20152015-12-31$32.44-1.81%$-12.66-139.03%
20142014-12-31$33.65-0.92%$-9.22-127.40%
20132013-12-31$24.980.29%$-14.29-157.21%
20122012-12-31$28.074.03%$2.02-92.80%
20112011-12-31$19.819.03%$-11.46-157.84%
20102010-12-31$27.1711.13%$-109.12-501.63%
20092009-12-31$29.9724.98%$-60.72-302.61%
20082008-06-30$24.9412.91%$-14.30-157.34%
20072007-06-30$27.33-0.88%$-3.77-113.80%
20062006-06-30$20.711.02%$-10.29-149.68%
20052005-06-30$19.092.17%$-27.57-244.41%
20042004-06-30$17.2421.49%$35.53106.08%
20032003-06-30$11.4914.33%$10.79-6.11%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-44.38
Median
$-41.64
10th Percentile
$-59.61
90th Percentile
$-32.51

Fair Value Distribution

$-136.41 - $-130.81
1
$-130.81 - $-125.21
0
$-125.21 - $-119.61
1
$-119.61 - $-114.01
0
$-114.01 - $-108.41
1
$-108.41 - $-102.81
2
$-102.81 - $-97.21
3
$-97.21 - $-91.62
2
$-91.62 - $-86.02
3
$-86.02 - $-80.42
9
$-80.42 - $-74.82
10
$-74.82 - $-69.22
15
$-69.22 - $-63.62
29
$-63.62 - $-58.02
37
$-58.02 - $-52.42
64
$-52.42 - $-46.82
114
$-46.82 - $-41.22
229
$-41.22 - $-35.63
254
$-35.63 - $-30.03
194
$-30.03 - $-24.43
32