Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $33,800.00 |
| 5Y Range | 426,620.49 – 989,352.06 |
| 5Y Selected | 707,986.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $189,740.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 461.36% |
| 10Y Range | 496,255.31 – 1,126,632.21 |
| 10Y Selected | 811,443.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $217,466.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 543.39% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2274 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3840 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2335 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4450 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0970 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7696 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2276 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3355 |
| Safety Score | 0.2680 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.88% | 9.23% | 8.58% | 7.92% | 7.27% | 6.61% | 5.96% | 5.31% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 18,281,906.25 | 19,969,245.59 | 21,681,780.98 | 23,399,448.38 | 25,100,231.30 | 26,760,556.27 | 28,355,775.68 | 29,860,727.22 | 31,250,354.36 | 32,500,368.53 |
| EBITDA | 1,185,745.87 | 1,295,184.98 | 1,406,258.29 | 1,517,664.45 | 1,627,975.50 | 1,735,662.49 | 1,839,126.80 | 1,936,736.43 | 2,026,866.24 | 2,107,940.89 |
| D&A | -224,863.42 | -245,617.32 | -266,681.13 | -287,808.06 | -308,727.32 | -329,148.95 | -348,769.80 | -367,280.37 | -384,372.48 | -399,747.38 |
| EBIT | 960,882.44 | 1,049,567.66 | 1,139,577.15 | 1,229,856.39 | 1,319,248.18 | 1,406,513.54 | 1,490,357.00 | 1,569,456.06 | 1,642,493.76 | 1,708,193.51 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -364,978.49 | -398,664.40 | -432,853.32 | -467,144.69 | -501,098.98 | -534,245.58 | -566,092.41 | -596,137.14 | -623,879.54 | -648,834.72 |
| NOPAT | 595,903.95 | 650,903.26 | 706,723.84 | 762,711.70 | 818,149.20 | 872,267.97 | 924,264.60 | 973,318.92 | 1,018,614.22 | 1,059,358.78 |
| Capital Expenditures | -167,132.63 | -182,558.23 | -198,214.18 | -213,917.04 | -229,465.54 | -244,644.18 | -259,227.63 | -272,985.85 | -285,689.78 | -297,117.37 |
| NWC Investment | -82,843.90 | -85,010.59 | -86,280.00 | -86,538.56 | -85,687.90 | -83,649.57 | -80,369.46 | -75,821.63 | -70,011.42 | -62,977.52 |
| (+) D&A | 224,863.42 | 245,617.32 | 266,681.13 | 287,808.06 | 308,727.32 | 329,148.95 | 348,769.80 | 367,280.37 | 384,372.48 | 399,747.38 |
| Free Cash Flow | 570,790.85 | 628,951.76 | 688,910.79 | 750,064.16 | 811,723.08 | 873,123.16 | 933,437.31 | 991,791.81 | 1,047,285.49 | 1,099,011.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 | 35,969,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 567,291.39 | 611,408.70 | 629,751.44 | 644,757.64 | 656,142.07 | 663,677.98 | 667,204.49 | 666,632.11 | 661,946.21 | 653,208.26 | Raw: 23,147,665.08 18,144,421.86 |
Raw: 31,340,176.95 18,063,292.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,253,773.10 | 24,485,312.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,182.52 | 1,182.52 |
| Equity Value | 21,252,590.57 | 24,484,130.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 35.97 | 35.97 |
| Fair Value | $590,846.21 | $680,686.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.76% | 76.76% |
| Buy Price | $137,312.66 | $158,191.59 |
| Current Price | $33,800.00 | $33,800.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 306.25% | 368.02% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 566,760.67 | 608,781.98 | 621,204.39 | 630,081.93 | 635,233.77 | 636,543.77 | 633,964.58 | 627,519.80 | 617,303.98 | 603,480.47 | Raw: 16,263,728.25 12,284,552.29 |
Raw: 22,019,850.35 11,670,486.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,346,615.03 | 17,851,362.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,182.52 | 1,182.52 |
| Equity Value | 15,345,432.51 | 17,850,179.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 35.97 | 35.97 |
| Fair Value | $426,620.49 | $496,255.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.76% | 76.76% |
| Buy Price | $99,146.60 | $115,329.74 |
| Current Price | $33,800.00 | $33,800.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 193.33% | 241.21% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 567,827.62 | 614,071.72 | 638,498.51 | 659,918.73 | 677,945.95 | 692,241.81 | 702,526.34 | 708,586.89 | 710,285.29 | 707,562.84 | Raw: 39,852,698.35 32,429,666.37 |
Raw: 53,957,520.70 33,846,395.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 35,587,928.90 | 40,525,861.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,182.52 | 1,182.52 |
| Equity Value | 35,586,746.38 | 40,524,678.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 35.97 | 35.97 |
| Fair Value | $989,352.06 | $1,126,632.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.76% | 76.76% |
| Buy Price | $229,925.42 | $261,829.33 |
| Current Price | $33,800.00 | $33,800.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 580.25% | 674.64% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 24,448,290.09 | 35,977,067.52 | 52,942,327.75 | 77,907,685.67 | 114,645,648.28 | 168,707,677.00 | 248,263,067.17 | 365,333,407.56 | 537,609,158.71 | 791,122,852.58 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% | 47.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2,444.83 | 3,597.71 | 5,294.23 | 7,790.77 | 11,464.56 | 16,870.77 | 24,826.31 | 36,533.34 | 53,760.92 | 79,112.29 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2,323.17 | 3,092.60 | 4,279.50 | 5,921.92 | 8,194.67 | 11,339.67 | 15,691.69 | 21,713.95 | 30,047.48 | 41,579.31 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $15,050.00 | 7.22% | $40,917.58 | 171.88% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $15,350.00 | 13.37% | $-93,668.91 | -710.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $27,650.00 | 19.37% | $38,833.15 | 40.45% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $29,550.00 | 8.22% | $20,542.20 | -30.48% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $33,800.00 | -2.55% | $51,817.05 | 53.30% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $28,700.00 | -6.36% | $56,860.01 | 98.12% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $28,750.00 | -2.89% | $-127,834.04 | -544.64% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $48,900.00 | 1.72% | $86,668.41 | 77.24% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $46,000.00 | -0.43% | $-63,628.05 | -238.32% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $38,650.00 | -2.31% | $-33,091.48 | -185.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30,250.00 | -4.92% | $127,781.33 | 322.42% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $14,600.00 | 2.60% | $29,921.54 | 104.94% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $21,100.00 | 5.58% | $-18,965.94 | -189.89% |
| $357,121.60 - $705,107.69 | 546 |
| $705,107.69 - $1,053,093.79 | 339 |
| $1,053,093.79 - $1,401,079.88 | 67 |
| $1,401,079.88 - $1,749,065.98 | 15 |
| $1,749,065.98 - $2,097,052.07 | 18 |
| $2,097,052.07 - $2,445,038.16 | 9 |
| $2,445,038.16 - $2,793,024.26 | 3 |
| $2,793,024.26 - $3,141,010.35 | 1 |
| $3,141,010.35 - $3,488,996.45 | 0 |
| $3,488,996.45 - $3,836,982.54 | 0 |
| $3,836,982.54 - $4,184,968.63 | 0 |
| $4,184,968.63 - $4,532,954.73 | 0 |
| $4,532,954.73 - $4,880,940.82 | 0 |
| $4,880,940.82 - $5,228,926.92 | 1 |
| $5,228,926.92 - $5,576,913.01 | 0 |
| $5,576,913.01 - $5,924,899.10 | 0 |
| $5,924,899.10 - $6,272,885.20 | 0 |
| $6,272,885.20 - $6,620,871.29 | 0 |
| $6,620,871.29 - $6,968,857.39 | 0 |
| $6,968,857.39 - $7,316,843.48 | 1 |