Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $53.15 |
| 5Y Range | 125.27 – 255.47 |
| 5Y Selected | 190.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $35.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.31% |
| 10Y Range | 145.73 – 289.52 |
| 10Y Selected | 217.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $41.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -22.61% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5025 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2565 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0153 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5393 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4583 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0069 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0378 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1619 |
| Safety Score | 0.1890 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 23.52% | 21.36% | 19.19% | 17.02% | 14.85% | 12.68% | 10.51% | 8.34% | 6.17% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 8,367.57 | 10,154.49 | 12,102.73 | 14,162.19 | 16,264.87 | 18,326.88 | 20,252.72 | 21,941.56 | 23,295.23 | 24,227.03 |
| EBITDA | 6,819.49 | 8,275.82 | 9,863.61 | 11,542.05 | 13,255.72 | 14,936.23 | 16,505.77 | 17,882.16 | 18,985.39 | 19,744.80 |
| D&A | -11.13 | -13.51 | -16.10 | -18.84 | -21.63 | -24.38 | -26.94 | -29.18 | -30.98 | -32.22 |
| EBIT | 6,808.36 | 8,262.31 | 9,847.51 | 11,523.22 | 13,234.08 | 14,911.86 | 16,478.83 | 17,852.98 | 18,954.40 | 19,712.58 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -112.95 | -137.07 | -163.37 | -191.17 | -219.55 | -247.38 | -273.38 | -296.18 | -314.45 | -327.03 |
| NOPAT | 6,695.41 | 8,125.24 | 9,684.15 | 11,332.05 | 13,014.53 | 14,664.47 | 16,205.46 | 17,556.80 | 18,639.96 | 19,385.55 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.12 | -3.78 | -4.51 | -5.27 | -6.06 | -6.83 | -7.54 | -8.17 | -8.68 | -9.02 |
| NWC Investment | 2,110.36 | 2,366.42 | 2,580.05 | 2,727.35 | 2,784.57 | 2,730.72 | 2,550.39 | 2,236.53 | 1,792.66 | 1,233.99 |
| (+) D&A | 11.13 | 13.51 | 16.10 | 18.84 | 21.63 | 24.38 | 26.94 | 29.18 | 30.98 | 32.22 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8,813.79 | 10,501.39 | 12,275.78 | 14,072.96 | 15,814.68 | 17,412.74 | 18,775.24 | 19,814.35 | 20,454.93 | 20,642.75 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 | 2,131,105,153.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,759.84 | 10,208.93 | 11,223.19 | 12,100.03 | 12,787.77 | 13,241.44 | 13,427.25 | 13,326.47 | 12,938.00 | 12,279.21 | Raw: 384,158.12 301,239.09 |
Raw: 501,437.83 289,258.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 356,318.85 | 409,551.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 130.14 | 130.14 |
| Equity Value | 356,188.72 | 409,420.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,131.11 | 2,131.11 |
| Fair Value | $167.14 | $192.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $25.61 | $29.43 |
| Current Price | $53.15 | $53.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.82% | -44.62% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,751.64 | 10,165.07 | 11,070.86 | 11,824.58 | 12,380.25 | 12,700.02 | 12,758.25 | 12,544.52 | 12,065.37 | 11,344.32 | Raw: 281,754.33 212,899.02 |
Raw: 367,771.17 195,084.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 267,091.41 | 310,689.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 130.14 | 130.14 |
| Equity Value | 266,961.28 | 310,559.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,131.11 | 2,131.11 |
| Fair Value | $125.27 | $145.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $19.19 | $22.33 |
| Current Price | $53.15 | $53.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.89% | -58.00% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,768.12 | 10,253.40 | 11,379.09 | 12,384.58 | 13,212.76 | 13,811.39 | 14,138.16 | 14,165.27 | 13,882.90 | 13,301.08 | Raw: 600,161.89 488,562.48 |
Raw: 783,385.44 491,828.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 544,560.43 | 617,125.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 130.14 | 130.14 |
| Equity Value | 544,430.29 | 616,995.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,131.11 | 2,131.11 |
| Fair Value | $255.47 | $289.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $39.14 | $44.35 |
| Current Price | $53.15 | $53.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.36% | -16.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,036.31 | 17,285.13 | 49,496.41 | 141,734.23 | 405,859.58 | 1,162,189.20 | 3,327,958.29 | 9,529,693.07 | 27,288,518.06 | 78,141,364.34 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% | 186.35% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.60 | 1.73 | 4.95 | 14.17 | 40.59 | 116.22 | 332.80 | 952.97 | 2,728.85 | 7,814.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.58 | 1.49 | 4.00 | 10.78 | 29.03 | 78.16 | 210.50 | 566.87 | 1,526.57 | 4,111.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $57.00 | 33.65% | $38.09 | -33.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $54.50 | -0.85% | $18.17 | -66.65% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $66.10 | -4.67% | $14.48 | -78.10% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $57.47 | -4.16% | $7.38 | -87.16% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $59.95 | -0.80% | $39.28 | -34.48% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $63.23 | 2.49% | $33.44 | -47.12% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $51.84 | -5.48% | $27.67 | -46.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $55.67 | -44.51% | $-5.21 | -109.36% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $48.31 | -62.36% | $-6.80 | -114.09% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $41.20 | -56.95% | $-7.53 | -118.28% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $35.48 | -31.63% | $4.20 | -88.15% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $36.58 | -0.29% | $45.07 | 23.22% |
| $103.66 - $140.76 | 83 |
| $140.76 - $177.85 | 334 |
| $177.85 - $214.94 | 270 |
| $214.94 - $252.03 | 142 |
| $252.03 - $289.12 | 74 |
| $289.12 - $326.21 | 51 |
| $326.21 - $363.30 | 12 |
| $363.30 - $400.40 | 13 |
| $400.40 - $437.49 | 7 |
| $437.49 - $474.58 | 3 |
| $474.58 - $511.67 | 2 |
| $511.67 - $548.76 | 4 |
| $548.76 - $585.85 | 1 |
| $585.85 - $622.94 | 0 |
| $622.94 - $660.03 | 1 |
| $660.03 - $697.13 | 1 |
| $697.13 - $734.22 | 0 |
| $734.22 - $771.31 | 0 |
| $771.31 - $808.40 | 0 |
| $808.40 - $845.49 | 2 |