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Shandong Hi-Speed Road and Bridge Group Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$5.99
5Y Range28.11 – 72.68
5Y Selected50.39
(-) Safety Margin41.12%
5Y Buy Price$31.37
Upside (to Buy Price)423.79%
10Y Range31.35 – 78.49
10Y Selected54.92
(-) Safety Margin41.12%
10Y Buy Price$34.19
Upside (to Buy Price)470.82%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7509
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9227
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4469
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8450
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5959
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8653
FCF R2 (5Y)0.6546
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6610
Safety Score0.6226

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.43%5.27%5.11%4.95%4.79%4.63%4.48%4.32%4.16%4.00%
Revenue75,219.2579,181.1083,226.2187,346.1691,531.7195,772.86100,058.84104,378.15108,718.59113,067.33
EBITDA5,983.956,299.136,620.936,948.687,281.667,619.067,960.028,303.648,648.938,994.89
D&A-750.04-789.54-829.88-870.96-912.70-954.99-997.72-1,040.79-1,084.07-1,127.44
EBIT5,233.915,509.585,791.056,077.726,368.966,664.076,962.307,262.847,564.867,867.46
Pro forma Taxes-1,031.02-1,085.32-1,140.77-1,197.24-1,254.61-1,312.74-1,371.49-1,430.69-1,490.19-1,549.80
NOPAT4,202.894,424.264,650.284,880.485,114.355,351.335,590.815,832.156,074.676,317.66
Capital Expenditures-889.09-935.92-983.73-1,032.43-1,081.90-1,132.03-1,182.70-1,233.75-1,285.05-1,336.46
NWC Investment-1,050.97-1,075.65-1,098.25-1,118.57-1,136.38-1,151.48-1,163.65-1,172.70-1,178.43-1,180.69
(+) D&A750.04789.54829.88870.96912.70954.99997.721,040.791,084.071,127.44
Free Cash Flow3,012.873,202.243,398.173,600.443,808.764,022.804,242.194,466.504,695.264,927.95
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.252,544,236,375.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.42%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF2,994.183,113.833,105.033,089.483,071.093,048.023,020.362,988.242,951.802,911.21
Raw: 117,451.15
91,802.89
Raw: 151,963.71
87,023.56

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value107,176.51117,316.80
(-) Net Debt4,407.574,407.57
Equity Value102,768.94112,909.23
(/) Shares Out2,544.242,544.24
Fair Value$40.39$44.38
(-) Safety Margin41.12%41.12%
Buy Price$23.78$26.13
Current Price$5.99$5.99
Upside (to Buy Price)297.05%336.23%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.42%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF2,991.383,100.753,063.213,019.212,973.302,923.492,869.992,813.032,752.872,689.74
Raw: 80,677.44
60,766.75
Raw: 104,384.19
54,971.41

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value75,914.6084,168.37
(-) Net Debt4,407.574,407.57
Equity Value71,507.0379,760.80
(/) Shares Out2,544.242,544.24
Fair Value$28.11$31.35
(-) Safety Margin41.12%41.12%
Buy Price$16.55$18.46
Current Price$5.99$5.99
Upside (to Buy Price)176.27%208.16%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.42%Terminal Growth: 3.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF2,997.013,127.083,147.833,162.083,173.073,179.103,180.143,176.163,167.203,153.28
Raw: 214,096.72
173,718.55
Raw: 277,008.22
172,634.67

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value189,325.62204,097.62
(-) Net Debt4,407.574,407.57
Equity Value184,918.05199,690.05
(/) Shares Out2,544.242,544.24
Fair Value$72.68$78.49
(-) Safety Margin41.12%41.12%
Buy Price$42.79$46.21
Current Price$5.99$5.99
Upside (to Buy Price)614.44%671.51%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$5.99
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH69.20%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue118,480.57200,471.09339,200.41573,932.72971,103.691,643,123.562,780,192.344,704,131.597,959,468.7513,467,553.27
Constant Implied Growth69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%69.20%
Implied Free Cash Flow11.8520.0533.9257.3997.11164.31278.02470.41795.951,346.76
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF11.2517.2027.3543.4969.14109.93174.78277.90441.85702.51

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$4.687.72%$-10.66-327.74%
20182018-12-31$5.2719.07%$8.0652.95%
20172017-12-31$6.8528.08%$-1.82-126.50%
20162016-12-31$7.9331.61%$33.68324.69%
20152015-12-31$8.9734.43%$39.88344.60%
20142014-12-31$4.6430.25%$10.67129.85%
20132013-12-31$4.0421.17%$18.45356.62%
20122012-12-31$7.2812.70%$-34.01-567.24%
20112011-12-31$7.28-4.24%$-0.95-113.03%
20102010-12-31$7.28-22.46%$-5.91-181.24%
20042004-12-31$5.40-125.95%$-0.38-107.01%
20032003-12-31$6.32-152.34%$-0.45-107.18%
20022002-12-31$6.58-77.41%$-0.94-114.34%
20012001-12-31$10.32-9.44%$0.54-94.74%
20002000-12-31$12.40-2.81%$-7.00-156.48%
19991999-12-31$7.46-0.92%$-2.25-130.19%
19981998-12-31$7.32-1.29%$-3.13-142.78%
19971997-12-31$5.460.21%$-0.43-107.96%
19961996-12-31$7.805.76%$-0.46-105.91%
19951995-12-31$7.805.48%$-0.50-106.37%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$55.84
Median
$43.28
10th Percentile
$30.99
90th Percentile
$75.67

Fair Value Distribution

$22.57 - $237.95
994
$237.95 - $453.34
4
$453.34 - $668.72
1
$668.72 - $884.10
0
$884.10 - $1,099.49
0
$1,099.49 - $1,314.87
0
$1,314.87 - $1,530.25
0
$1,530.25 - $1,745.64
0
$1,745.64 - $1,961.02
0
$1,961.02 - $2,176.40
0
$2,176.40 - $2,391.79
0
$2,391.79 - $2,607.17
0
$2,607.17 - $2,822.55
0
$2,822.55 - $3,037.94
0
$3,037.94 - $3,253.32
0
$3,253.32 - $3,468.70
0
$3,468.70 - $3,684.09
0
$3,684.09 - $3,899.47
0
$3,899.47 - $4,114.85
0
$4,114.85 - $4,330.24
1