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CK Hutchison Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$55.40
5Y Range502.53 – 1,012.11
5Y Selected757.32
(-) Safety Margin84.32%
5Y Buy Price$145.71
Upside (to Buy Price)163.01%
10Y Range528.91 – 1,029.22
10Y Selected779.06
(-) Safety Margin84.32%
10Y Buy Price$149.89
Upside (to Buy Price)170.56%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2084
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3639
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4724
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4766
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2975
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1601
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0037
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0584
Safety Score0.1924

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.54%-0.04%0.47%0.97%1.48%1.98%2.49%2.99%3.50%4.00%
Revenue279,818.58279,707.49281,008.86283,735.28287,920.90293,622.17300,919.01309,916.71320,748.41333,578.35
EBITDA145,138.12145,080.50145,755.50147,169.66149,340.68152,297.85156,082.63160,749.61166,367.87173,022.59
D&A-32,428.26-32,415.38-32,566.20-32,882.16-33,367.24-34,027.96-34,873.59-35,916.34-37,171.63-38,658.49
EBIT112,709.87112,665.12113,189.31114,287.50115,973.45118,269.90121,209.04124,833.28129,196.25134,364.10
Pro forma Taxes-10,800.02-10,795.73-10,845.96-10,951.19-11,112.74-11,332.79-11,614.42-11,961.70-12,379.77-12,874.96
NOPAT101,909.85101,869.39102,343.34103,336.30104,860.71106,937.11109,594.61112,871.57116,816.48121,489.14
Capital Expenditures-28,926.26-28,914.78-29,049.31-29,331.15-29,763.84-30,353.21-31,107.52-32,037.66-33,157.39-34,483.68
NWC Investment-75.03-5.4463.72133.49204.93279.14357.26440.54530.33628.17
(+) D&A32,428.2632,415.3832,566.2032,882.1633,367.2434,027.9634,873.5935,916.3437,171.6338,658.49
Free Cash Flow105,336.81105,364.55105,923.95107,020.80108,669.03110,890.99113,717.94117,190.79121,361.05126,292.11
Diluted Shares Outstanding3,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.003,830,045,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.18%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF104,691.00102,488.6796,887.4391,995.4487,840.7084,290.4181,283.5778,769.7076,707.3475,062.97
Raw: 2,668,688.19
2,091,865.60
Raw: 3,101,474.74
1,787,572.72

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value2,575,768.832,667,589.94
(-) Net Debt26,848.0926,848.09
Equity Value2,548,920.752,640,741.86
(/) Shares Out3,830.053,830.05
Fair Value$665.51$689.48
(-) Safety Margin84.32%84.32%
Buy Price$104.35$108.11
Current Price$55.40$55.40
Upside (to Buy Price)88.36%95.15%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.68%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF104,593.06102,057.9195,581.4189,901.4785,041.6180,844.2377,234.0574,148.1671,534.1369,348.53
Raw: 1,951,946.68
1,474,372.34
Raw: 2,268,497.82
1,202,300.35

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,951,547.812,052,584.92
(-) Net Debt26,848.0926,848.09
Equity Value1,924,699.722,025,736.84
(/) Shares Out3,830.053,830.05
Fair Value$502.53$528.91
(-) Safety Margin84.32%84.32%
Buy Price$78.80$82.93
Current Price$55.40$55.40
Upside (to Buy Price)42.23%49.70%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.68%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF104,789.96102,925.3498,223.8994,158.6590,759.6987,918.1685,586.7383,727.1082,308.9581,309.09
Raw: 4,193,526.27
3,412,432.87
Raw: 4,873,598.89
3,057,104.08

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,903,290.393,968,811.63
(-) Net Debt26,848.0926,848.09
Equity Value3,876,442.313,941,963.54
(/) Shares Out3,830.053,830.05
Fair Value$1,012.11$1,029.22
(-) Safety Margin84.32%84.32%
Buy Price$158.70$161.38
Current Price$55.40$55.40
Upside (to Buy Price)186.46%191.30%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$55.40
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH75.99%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue990,286.191,742,852.933,067,331.795,398,346.709,500,813.4216,720,944.5129,428,005.0651,791,780.1591,150,877.73160,420,871.54
Constant Implied Growth75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%
Implied Free Cash Flow99.03174.29306.73539.83950.081,672.092,942.805,179.189,115.0916,042.09
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF94.86149.82247.94410.34679.101,123.901,860.023,078.305,094.518,431.29

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$74.951.08%$51.88-30.79%
20182018-12-31$74.40-1.59%$43.04-42.15%
20172017-12-31$98.65-1.57%$56.46-42.77%
20162016-12-31$87.902.11%$39.74-54.79%
20152015-12-31$104.702.37%$45.44-56.60%
20142014-12-31$75.178.68%$280.73273.46%
20132013-12-31$70.5695.53%$2,219.853,046.04%
20122012-12-31$70.1684.80%$457.84552.57%
20112011-12-31$53.2256.96%$-396.37-844.79%
20102010-12-31$69.01-0.29%$-20.07-129.08%
20092009-12-31$57.77-58.91%$-74.18-228.40%
20082008-12-31$42.222.72%$-48.87-215.76%
20072007-12-31$83.0616.39%$-8.80-110.60%
20062006-12-31$56.0124.43%$-290.96-619.49%
20052005-12-31$45.8218.55%$2.71-94.09%
20042004-12-31$44.6422.68%$-88.71-298.72%
20032003-12-31$35.578.79%$68.8893.64%
20022002-12-31$29.237.96%$31.638.20%
20012001-12-31$44.4526.82%$-36.86-182.93%
20002000-12-31$57.0317.76%$-2.83-104.95%
19991999-12-31$56.0319.04%$-83.10-248.32%
19981998-12-31$56.031.31%$8.41-84.99%
19971997-12-31$56.03-30.86%$2.17-96.12%
19961996-12-31$56.03-14.07%$5.24-90.65%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$752.62
Median
$691.16
10th Percentile
$524.95
90th Percentile
$1,063.13

Fair Value Distribution

$402.16 - $506.63
66
$506.63 - $611.10
234
$611.10 - $715.58
251
$715.58 - $820.05
177
$820.05 - $924.52
94
$924.52 - $1,028.99
68
$1,028.99 - $1,133.47
42
$1,133.47 - $1,237.94
24
$1,237.94 - $1,342.41
12
$1,342.41 - $1,446.89
6
$1,446.89 - $1,551.36
8
$1,551.36 - $1,655.83
7
$1,655.83 - $1,760.30
5
$1,760.30 - $1,864.78
2
$1,864.78 - $1,969.25
1
$1,969.25 - $2,073.72
2
$2,073.72 - $2,178.19
0
$2,178.19 - $2,282.67
0
$2,282.67 - $2,387.14
0
$2,387.14 - $2,491.61
1