Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $274.20 |
| 5Y Range | 118.74 – 183.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 151.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.72% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $100.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.47% |
| 10Y Range | 131.43 – 197.97 |
| 10Y Selected | 164.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.72% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $109.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.19% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7111 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9124 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3728 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8618 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6965 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8658 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0347 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8291 |
| Safety Score | 0.6628 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.99% | 8.44% | 7.88% | 7.33% | 6.77% | 6.22% | 5.66% | 5.11% | 4.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 453,571.67 | 491,830.83 | 530,590.53 | 569,463.26 | 608,026.90 | 645,831.23 | 682,405.67 | 717,268.21 | 749,935.37 | 779,932.79 |
| EBITDA | 157,760.08 | 171,067.28 | 184,548.57 | 198,069.18 | 211,482.28 | 224,631.28 | 237,352.51 | 249,478.30 | 260,840.51 | 271,274.13 |
| D&A | -15,926.90 | -17,270.34 | -18,631.37 | -19,996.36 | -21,350.50 | -22,677.98 | -23,962.27 | -25,186.44 | -26,333.53 | -27,386.87 |
| EBIT | 141,833.18 | 153,796.93 | 165,917.21 | 178,072.82 | 190,131.78 | 201,953.31 | 213,390.24 | 224,291.86 | 234,506.98 | 243,887.25 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -25,330.17 | -27,466.79 | -29,631.36 | -31,802.25 | -33,955.87 | -36,067.09 | -38,109.63 | -40,056.56 | -41,880.90 | -43,556.13 |
| NOPAT | 116,503.02 | 126,330.14 | 136,285.84 | 146,270.57 | 156,175.91 | 165,886.21 | 175,280.61 | 184,235.29 | 192,626.08 | 200,331.12 |
| Capital Expenditures | -15,949.04 | -17,294.35 | -18,657.27 | -20,024.16 | -21,380.18 | -22,709.50 | -23,995.58 | -25,221.46 | -26,370.14 | -27,424.94 |
| NWC Investment | 4,932.09 | 5,043.95 | 5,109.94 | 5,124.84 | 5,084.10 | 4,983.99 | 4,821.85 | 4,596.16 | 4,306.72 | 3,954.75 |
| (+) D&A | 15,926.90 | 17,270.34 | 18,631.37 | 19,996.36 | 21,350.50 | 22,677.98 | 23,962.27 | 25,186.44 | 26,333.53 | 27,386.87 |
| Free Cash Flow | 121,412.97 | 131,350.09 | 141,369.89 | 151,367.62 | 161,230.32 | 170,838.68 | 180,069.14 | 188,796.44 | 196,896.20 | 204,247.81 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 | 15,039,968,500.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 |
| Period End | 9/27/26 | 9/27/27 | 9/27/28 | 9/27/29 | 9/27/30 | 9/27/31 | 9/27/32 | 9/27/33 | 9/27/34 | 9/27/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/28/26 | 3/29/27 | 3/28/28 | 3/29/29 | 3/29/30 | 3/29/31 | 3/28/32 | 3/29/33 | 3/29/34 | 3/29/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/15/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 119,314.86 | 118,306.13 | 116,702.77 | 114,526.14 | 111,806.16 | 108,580.69 | 104,894.59 | 100,710.89 | 96,264.77 | 91,523.96 | Raw: 2,483,768.32 1,648,935.98 |
Raw: 3,146,456.67 1,349,810.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,229,592.04 | 2,432,441.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00 | 66,169.00 |
| Equity Value | 2,163,423.04 | 2,366,272.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039.97 | 15,039.97 |
| Fair Value | $143.84 | $157.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.72% | 33.72% |
| Buy Price | $95.34 | $104.28 |
| Current Price | $274.20 | $274.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.23% | -61.97% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 119,097.35 | 117,017.94 | 114,383.68 | 111,230.84 | 107,602.91 | 103,549.63 | 99,125.81 | 94,299.23 | 89,317.54 | 84,147.63 | Raw: 2,016,787.46 1,282,714.37 |
Raw: 2,554,881.74 1,003,108.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,852,047.09 | 2,042,880.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00 | 66,169.00 |
| Equity Value | 1,785,878.09 | 1,976,711.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039.97 | 15,039.97 |
| Fair Value | $118.74 | $131.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.72% | 33.72% |
| Buy Price | $78.70 | $87.11 |
| Current Price | $274.20 | $274.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.30% | -68.23% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 119,534.79 | 119,620.55 | 119,090.88 | 117,950.77 | 116,214.60 | 113,905.94 | 111,056.92 | 107,623.67 | 103,823.94 | 99,623.95 | Raw: 3,222,734.63 2,234,146.31 |
Raw: 4,082,584.82 1,915,202.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,826,557.90 | 3,043,648.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 66,169.00 | 66,169.00 |
| Equity Value | 2,760,388.90 | 2,977,479.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15,039.97 | 15,039.97 |
| Fair Value | $183.54 | $197.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.72% | 33.72% |
| Buy Price | $121.65 | $131.22 |
| Current Price | $274.20 | $274.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.63% | -52.15% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,087,139.33 | 2,839,939.17 | 7,418,786.41 | 19,380,130.51 | 50,626,805.77 | 132,252,642.02 | 345,484,196.69 | 902,509,986.47 | 2,357,631,068.16 | 6,158,850,690.75 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 108.71 | 283.99 | 741.88 | 1,938.01 | 5,062.68 | 13,225.26 | 34,548.42 | 90,251.00 | 235,763.11 | 615,885.07 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 102.28 | 234.44 | 561.31 | 1,343.93 | 3,217.71 | 7,704.03 | 18,429.38 | 44,124.73 | 105,646.05 | 252,944.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-26 | $112.28 | 5.27% | $75.18 | -33.04% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-28 | $54.71 | 10.59% | $72.30 | 32.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-29 | $56.44 | 15.24% | $88.07 | 56.04% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $38.53 | 16.33% | $69.06 | 79.24% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-24 | $28.18 | 15.46% | $66.44 | 135.77% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-26 | $28.68 | 11.95% | $74.06 | 158.22% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-27 | $25.19 | 9.62% | $45.74 | 81.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-28 | $17.24 | 12.37% | $43.73 | 153.64% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-29 | $23.83 | 12.92% | $41.66 | 74.82% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-24 | $14.44 | 14.31% | $32.40 | 124.38% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-25 | $10.44 | 20.02% | $22.78 | 118.15% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-26 | $6.51 | 26.07% | $15.75 | 141.91% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-27 | $4.58 | 35.41% | $21.18 | 362.35% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-29 | $5.48 | 39.19% | $13.23 | 141.39% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $2.75 | 35.45% | $4.30 | 56.34% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-24 | $1.90 | 28.33% | $4.90 | 157.85% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-25 | $0.67 | 25.27% | $1.68 | 152.03% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-27 | $0.37 | 28.69% | $0.45 | 21.59% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-28 | $0.26 | 30.63% | $-0.12 | -146.43% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-29 | $0.28 | 27.75% | $-0.01 | -103.34% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $0.46 | 19.16% | $1.45 | 214.71% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-25 | $0.58 | -0.94% | $0.76 | 31.33% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-25 | $0.35 | -8.57% | $0.53 | 53.31% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-26 | $0.19 | -9.84% | $0.09 | -54.53% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-27 | $0.20 | -10.98% | $0.25 | 27.18% |
| $102.64 - $114.16 | 11 |
| $114.16 - $125.67 | 44 |
| $125.67 - $137.18 | 129 |
| $137.18 - $148.69 | 161 |
| $148.69 - $160.21 | 208 |
| $160.21 - $171.72 | 137 |
| $171.72 - $183.23 | 108 |
| $183.23 - $194.74 | 81 |
| $194.74 - $206.25 | 41 |
| $206.25 - $217.77 | 23 |
| $217.77 - $229.28 | 27 |
| $229.28 - $240.79 | 12 |
| $240.79 - $252.30 | 8 |
| $252.30 - $263.82 | 3 |
| $263.82 - $275.33 | 2 |
| $275.33 - $286.84 | 2 |
| $286.84 - $298.35 | 2 |
| $298.35 - $309.87 | 0 |
| $309.87 - $321.38 | 0 |
| $321.38 - $332.89 | 1 |