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Definitive Analysis

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Page: Dividend Discount Model

Q P Group Holdings Limited

Ticker: 1412.HK | Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products | Sector: Basic Materials
$1.34 +0.01 (0.75%)
As of: 2026-01-23

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Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM$1.21 - $1.65$1.43
Multi-Stage DDM$1.91 - $2.10$2.00
Blended Fair Value$1.72
Stock Price$1.61

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.0000.1300.1400.1400.1110.0190.0190.0280.056
YoY %-100.00%-7.14%0.00%25.97%491.26%0.00%-33.33%-50.00%0.00%
Yield0.000%8.075%8.696%8.696%6.903%1.168%1.168%1.751%3.503%

CAGRValue
5 Year-100.00%
10 Year0.00%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth-5.41% to -3.41%-4.41%
WACC9.74%9.74%
Fair Value$1.21 - $1.65$1.43

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income129.12129.12129.12
(=) Cash Required25.8216.149.68
Cash Retained129.12129.12129.12
(-) Cash Required-25.82-16.14-9.68
(=) Excess Retained103.29112.98119.43
(/) Shares Outstanding532,000,000532,000,000532,000,000
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.0000.0000.000
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.1940.2120.224

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income129.12123.42117.98112.78107.81103.06
Payout Ratio0.0%25.0%41.0%57.0%73.0%90.0%
Projected Dividends0.0030.8648.3764.2978.7092.75

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV29.1529.4529.76
Year 2 PV41.2042.0842.96
Year 3 PV49.3750.9652.57
Year 4 PV54.5056.8559.26
Year 5 PV57.9261.0564.31
TV PV782.74825.00869.06
Equity Value1,014.891,065.381,117.93
Fair Value$1.91$2.00$2.10
Stock Price$1.61$1.61$1.61

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