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Definitive Analysis

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Page: Dividend Discount Model

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

Ticker: PBR-A | Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated | Sector: Energy
$11.88 +0.15 (1.28%)
As of: 2026-01-15

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Dividend Discount Models Snapshot

ModelRangeSelected
Stable Growth DDM$113.80 - $281.03$164.56
Multi-Stage DDM$17.18 - $18.77$17.96
Blended Fair Value$91.26
Stock Price$11.65

Dividend History (Last 10 Years)

Metric2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.8423.0215.7802.0050.2100.2880.0960.0000.0000.000
YoY %-5.94%-47.74%188.28%856.69%-27.17%200.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Yield24.392%25.931%49.618%17.212%1.799%2.470%0.823%0.000%0.000%0.000%

CAGRValue
5 Year58.09%
10 Year16.81%

Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

MetricRangeSelected
LT Growth5.50% to 7.50%6.50%
WACC9.00%9.00%
Fair Value$113.80 - $281.03$164.56

Calculation Details (Millions)

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(*) Adjusted Net Income7,528.007,528.007,528.00
(=) Cash Required1,505.60941.00564.60
Cash Retained7,528.007,528.007,528.00
(-) Cash Required-1,505.60-941.00-564.60
(=) Excess Retained6,022.406,587.006,963.40
(/) Shares Outstanding6,449,381,0006,449,381,0006,449,381,000
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.021.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.8422.8422.842
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.021.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.7753.8633.921

Multi-Stage Projections (BASE Case - Millions)

MetricTTMYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Net Income7,528.008,017.328,538.459,093.449,684.5210,314.01
Payout Ratio243.5%25.0%41.0%57.0%73.0%90.0%
Projected Dividends18,327.002,004.333,500.765,183.267,069.709,282.61

Multi-Stage Valuation (Millions)

Present ValuesLOWBASEHIGH
Year 1 PV1,901.771,919.801,937.83
Year 2 PV3,018.763,076.263,134.30
Year 3 PV4,062.054,178.664,297.48
Year 4 PV5,035.235,228.875,428.05
Year 5 PV6,008.496,298.706,600.02
TV PV90,753.3095,136.7299,687.90
Equity Value110,779.61115,839.01121,085.57
Fair Value$17.18$17.96$18.77
Stock Price$11.65$11.65$11.65

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