Definitive Analysis
| Fiscal Year | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL DPS | 4.92% | 7.13% | $1.0316 | $0.9928 | $0.9543 | $0.9152 | $0.8662 | $0.8115 | $0.7644 | $0.6918 | $0.6119 | $0.5552 |
| AAPL YoY Growth | - | - | 3.90% | 4.04% | 4.27% | 5.66% | 6.75% | 6.16% | 10.49% | 13.06% | 10.20% | - |
| AAPL Yield | 0.4038% | 0.4359% | 0.5574% | 0.6084% | 0.5896% | 0.7227% | 1.3971% | 1.2257% | 1.5880% | 1.9703% |
| Range | Selected | |
|---|---|---|
| Stable Growth Model | $63.66 - $107.80 | $79.62 |
| Multi Stage Model | $58.09 - $95.01 | $72.71 |
| Blended Fair Value | $76.17 | |
| Stock Price | $278.78 | |
| Upside / Downside | -72.68% | |
| Safety Margin | 0.25 | |
| Buy Price | $57.12 | |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Don't Buy | |
| Net Income To Common | 112,010 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid | 15,421 |
| (=) Cash Retained | 96,589 |
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 18.00% | 20.00% | 22.00% |
| (*) Adjusted Net Income | 112,010 | 112,010 | 112,010 |
| (=) Cash Required | 20,161.80 | 22,402.00 | 24,642.20 |
| Cash Retained (Actual) | 96,589.00 | 96,589.00 | 96,589.00 |
| (-) Cash Required | -20,161.80 | -22,402.00 | -24,642.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained | 76,427.20 | 74,187.00 | 71,946.80 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14,949 | 14,949 | 14,949 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.11 | 4.96 | 4.81 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.11 | 4.96 | 4.81 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.14 | 5.99 | 5.84 |
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 13.60% | 11.83% | 10.06% |
| Growth Rate | 3.60% | 4.00% | 4.40% |
| Fair Value | $63.66 | $79.62 | $107.80 |
| Stock Price | $278.78 | ||
| Upside / Downside | -77.17% | -71.44% | -61.33% |
| Safety Margin | 25.00% | ||
| Buy Price | $47.74 | $59.71 | $80.85 |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Don't Buy | ||
| 10.83% | 11.33% | 11.83% | 12.33% | 12.83% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00% | $78.85 | $74.12 | $69.92 | $66.18 | $62.81 |
| 3.50% | $84.64 | $79.24 | $74.48 | $70.26 | $66.50 |
| 4.00% | $91.28 | $85.05 | $79.62 | $74.84 | $70.60 |
| 4.50% | $98.96 | $91.72 | $85.46 | $80.00 | $75.20 |
| 5.00% | $107.96 | $99.43 | $92.15 | $85.87 | $80.39 |
| TTM | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income to Common | 112,010 | 116,490 | 121,150 | 125,996 | 131,036 | 136,277 | 140,366 |
| % Growth | - | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% |
| Payout Ratio | 13.77% | 29.51% | 45.26% | 61.01% | 76.75% | 92.50% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends | 15,421 | 34,381 | 54,833 | 76,866 | 100,575 | 126,056 | 129,838 |
| % Growth (Dividends) | - | 122.95% | 59.49% | 40.18% | 30.84% | 25.34% | 3.00% |
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 13.60% | 11.83% | 10.06% |
| Growth Rate | 3.60% | 4.00% | 4.40% |
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timing of dividends (mid year) | 0.9 | 1.78 | 2.78 | 3.78 | 4.78 | 5.28 |
| LOW | BASE | HIGH | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terminal Value | 1,201,514 | 1,470,421 | 1,874,708 |
| Year | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30,535 | 31,090 | 31,661 |
| 2 | 43,363 | 44,938 | 46,588 |
| 3 | 53,305 | 56,331 | 59,567 |
| 4 | 61,160 | 65,908 | 71,088 |
| 5 | 67,219 | 73,868 | 81,267 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 612,817 | 814,805 | 1,130,133 |
| Equity Value | 868,399 | 1,086,939 | 1,420,304 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14,949 | 14,949 | 14,949 |
| Fair Value | $58.09 | $72.71 | $95.01 |
| Stock Price | $278.78 | ||
| Upside / Downside | -79.16% | -73.92% | -65.92% |
| Safety Margin | 25.00% | ||
| Buy Price | $43.57 | $54.53 | $71.26 |
| Buy / Don't Buy | Don't Buy | Don't Buy | Don't Buy |